When you see this sign in the woods, it's not a good idea to light new campfires. A similar situation exists now on the ES 4-hr futures. Yesterday we suggested counting upwards, and we did that today. The market went a bit higher and hit ES 7,200. But our equivalent count on this contract indicates that with 110 candles on the chart, The Eight-Fold-Path Method suggests a five-count is best on this wave largely in a channel.
The wave includes a completely acceptable fourth wave retrace in this timeframe that we called the end of.
Yes, there can be more upside. The (v)th up wave could become as long as wave (iii) since the first wave is the extended wave in the sequence. Maybe the wave goes on into Monday or Tuesday, pending news. But when the wave turns down, there could be a steep correction, and possibly, but not certainly, a complete retrace depending on whether the degree labels are the correct size. In other words, this wave could be all of Minor C, or it could just be minute ⓘ of Minor C. It's a very difficult call, but I've gone with the most conservative view until we know more. Either way the risks are pretty high.
Just thought I'd share the count. Have an excellent start to the evening and the weekend.
TraderJoe
I appreciate this update! It’s interesting that the DOW is not making new highs, even as the S&P 500 and QQQ move higher. That kind of divergence is significant especially when the S&P and QQQ are now running into long-term upper trendline resistance.
ReplyDeleteThe QQQ made a dramatic run higher from October 1999 through March 2000 during the dot-com boom. That move was followed by a 48% crash just 14 trading days later.
This extreme rally was fueled by hedge funds covering shorts.
Definitely smacks of LEVERAGED short covering issuing in new ATHs. AO divergence also probative imho.
ReplyDeleteAAII survey bullish sentiment is close to one year highs. This massive rally was on low volume and it completed the mission of filling the gaps in the market including the 205 gap in NVDA.
DeleteThe VIX is close to filling the gap around the 18.26 level. Hopefully we see this early next week.
SPY 15-min: cash does have a higher high today.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/IBk2pvtz/
TJ
ES now also has the higher high. Both cash & futures in synch. TJ.
DeleteThanks Tj. Turnaround Tuesday then to close below line in sand then :)
DeletePossibly, but not guaranteed. See next day's post, which is already up. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ