Trade all day, short and choppy lower, and then get this kind of move at the end of the session on the ES/SPY (CFD) 30-min chart, importantly, importantly after the close of the cash session.
Once again, someone is really working the thin volume, and if it weren't for me adhering to Ira's guidelines, they'd be working my last nerve, too. It's too bizarre that in five minutes someone gets to move the market almost half as much as it moved in the entire day. The day session has the volume, and this?
Avoiding this kind of scenario is what a recognition of chop will do for you.
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
Any idea on the count. Thanks i am lost
ReplyDeleteUnless we had a flat today
DeleteI have very little confidence in the count but it's acting like a triangle with the whippy waves, so maybe a 'b' wave triangle within the B wave triangle. Again, not sure. TJ.
DeleteThanks
DeleteES/SPY (CFD) 1 hr: We now have the benefits of overnight waves, and it is possible the potential triangle is breaking down into a diagonal - which might be the (c) wave of minute ⓔ, the last wave of the daily expanding triangle. We don't know, yet, but look of the size of that wave 'ii'. It is the largest wave in the hourly down trend so it would put the degrees in the correct spot.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/w6SpLnfL/
TJ
ES/SPY (CFD) - now below the 23 Mar 26 low; if it keeps going it will lose the look of a diagonal and perhaps stretch out into an impulse. That is certainly ok, especially if the (a) wave down of ⓔ was the expanding diagonal. Just keep in mind price is down near a lower daily Bollinger Band (not the place Ira recommends new naked sales).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gRUgREct/
TJ
ES/SPY (CFD) 1-hr: because the wave has lost the look of a diagonal, we'll switch to this very messy impulse count, until or unless disproved by upward overlap.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MZ3AyGKD/
We don't know that wave (iii) is over yet.
TJ
Look.at this channel. If this is correct (big if) then this points to a different count within the channel ie 1 and 3 now 4..4 has a long way to go. Just something out there
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Ic3aM36y/
That channel is an arithmetic channel and not a log one. As such, the odds of it being correct in the long run (with the inflation noted) are slightly less than the exponential channel. TJ.
DeleteOne way to acertain if this channel in play or any importance, the 23.6 retrace is around 6200 plus minus if it bounces from there that would point to A(W) complete and b(x) up..
DeleteES 2-day (Roll-over contract): the level of 6,400 is 150% times the prior down wave. If the expanding triangle is to hold then, by rule, this level should be respected. If the level is exceeded significantly then it likely means we are in the Expanded Flat version of the Minor B wave, which could go much lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Jblv9ezf/
TJ
SPY cash (2 Day) has broken the 'rule' for the triangle and is down to 1.618, so this decreases the odds of the expanding triangle count and increases the odds of the expanded flat. ES futures are still temporarily +/- 1%, but if this is an impulse down, it 'could' break the rule for the expanding triangle as well.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CfLpmV2z/
TJ
what might help is the short term oil ew analysis to figure out the broader markets.
ReplyDeletesee the next day's post. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ