Discount Double Deceit

Wednesday in the ES daily futures was an outside day up. The low of an outside day up should not be taken out within the next two sessions, or it can be a trap for the bulls. The next day took out the low, potentially setting the trap, but on that Thursday bar the high of the prior bar was also taken out, creating another outside day higher. The first outside day up on Wednesday just plain lied. Then, the low of that Thursday bar should not be taken out within the next two sessions, or it can create a trap for the bulls. The low of Friday's bar took out the low of Thursday's bar - again potentially springing the trap. The Thursday bar lied, too.

ES Futures - Daily - High Made 90% Level

In the process, price left a gap at the local daily high and got down to within about ten points of the 18-day SMA but didn't quite hit it. At the end of the session, the daily slow stochastic remained embedded.

The Fibonacci ruler is shown so that you can see that the highest high, so far in December has reached the 90% level which, by rule, can define a flat wave.

Meanwhile the Dow did make a new higher high over both the late October and early November high. Again - for the intermediate term - the count remains indeterminate for a bit. For the shorter term, yesterday we showed the chart at this LINK and said a larger flat wave certainly could result in the whippiness. So far, it appears to have although we would like to see a finish to this down wave on Monday or Tuesday to more firmly conclude that.

I know most readers would like more clarity than I am providing here: so would I. Still, we have said the risks are high and to expect a whippy, volatile market and that's what we are getting, so far. 

Hopefully, there will be some additional thoughts over the weekend. Have an excellent start to the evening.

TraderJoe