We normally do very straightforward wave counts on arithmetic scale in short timeframes (daily, hourly, etc.). And it is in doing this, that we find that the Dow has a longer wave down for (4) than it does for wave (2). But we have always recognized over long time periods - particularly when inflation is raging - the need to keep log charts. Elliott did this, and the purpose is to measure long-term percentage moves on an index. So, when we do this for the Dow, look what we find.
Only if we "log it", use a semi-log scale, do we find that wave (4) both overlaps wave (1) and it is shorter than wave (2) in percentage terms. Is it trickery, or not? Is it trickery that the FED gets to bend the dollar by manipulating interest rates wildly - from 0% to 5% or vice-versa in a veritable heartbeat?
Well, I will only say this pattern won't be thrown-away because of the arithmetic scale argument. We will instead note that inflation was, in fact, raging >6% for much of this time. So perhaps the log scale is the right one for the job, here.
This doesn't necessarily resolve the issue in the S&P500 which has not overlapped yet. And we have one other word of caution. Look at just how many months the Dow took to make wave (3). That means it will be several months likely until we get a final result. This could agree with a triangle in the SPX, too.
This is the second posting since Friday, so have an excellent rest of the weekend,
TraderJoe
Would you mind to comment further on Gold. I have been following it only since your most recent post on it. It seems possible that the 'fizzling out' has begun, but I do believe it's possible that the fifth wave extends again? TIA
ReplyDeleteNothing has been proven yet...Price has not overlapped key levels. If you are talking about this month's move up, I only see three waves up (so far). TJ's once-possible 1>3>5 in terms of price was negated if you tried to count that way, since 3 would have been the smallest wave. But, it is possible that the three waves are B of an extended flat. Five-wave C would end below the end of A, before the big run higher this month.
DeleteI said we were "counting GOLD (GC) by parallels until we could no longer". Just move out from daily to weekly to see the next parallel, and a rather exact one at that.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1kLbftiS/
Notes: a) wave 3 expands by smaller & smaller degree waves, b) see the location of 0.382 of wave 3. It is almost precisely at a fourth wave of lower degree. That is no 'guarantee', but it is usual or 'common'.
TJ
Or perhaps? https://ibb.co/fV9dCXqP
DeleteI can only really count wxy up this month, not five waves. Putting circle 5 at previous high would allow minor 4 to be whippier, alternating with minor 2. I've never seen third waves hug the bottom parallel so much as shown in your channel. Seems out of character, but I'm still learning. Moving circle 5 would fix that.
@tva .. I am posting this reply to help you learn different forms of impulses. See the Elliott Wave Principle (Prechter), or Mastering Elliott Wave (Neely) for any additional details. See the chart notes.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/IffIgq1m/
I 'knew' a wedge was being formed from the lack of retracement and sketched out a couple of them. I did 'not' get it to the penny, the dollar, or the $10. But I sure knew not to get caught long. And I didn't. So, I like to review where I got the count details incorrect. There are notes on the chart.
TJ
Not every motive wave is an impulse.
Delete@Tachy; are u saying there are motive waves other than impulses and diagonals? TJ
DeleteThanks TJ. If I compare the counts on Friday and Saturday posts, I am confused with triangle in the SPX and same time to be taken by DOW. I am truly tricked :)
ReplyDeleteOpen your mind to learn, grasshopper. Stock Indexes 'do not' have to top at exactly the same time. As an exercise, if you have any interest at all, go back and study what topped when in 1999 - 2001. Look at Dow vs SPX. You'll see what I mean. TJ.
DeleteZBT last week so bottom likely in. Looks like series gaps to the upside beginning. Overhead gaps to be filled. All important clues!
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: reminder of the intraday wave-counting-screen. Prior high exceeded.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/u075Y4Mk/
TJ
ES 60-min: up wave can still be counted as a 'five' (and might not be done).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Ub2Go3bg/
TJ
ES 30-min: back to intraday 18-per with tails below R1. "Spinning top" candle requires significant lower close candle for confirmation. TJ.
ReplyDeleteThe high of day has now become a valid fractal in real time (chart is behind the usual 10 min or so).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yksmNk6c/
TJ
ES 30-min: first down (red) fractal back has been exceeded lower. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: last four down (red) fractals have been exceeded lower, and a 'substantial' lower close candle to confirm the spinning top candle.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CI4YrPwf/
TJ
Now below Friday's 13:30 spike low @ 5,511 and probably into that (b) wave lower. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: back up to the 18-per SMA.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7lt5idQZ/
TJ
SPY 15-min: this is all I see at the end of the day. There is some risk of going over the top again, as it is difficult to be sure today's down wave was a 'five' and not a 'three'.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fRDMmt03/
TJ
Using a 12hr ES chart with 100 candles on it reveals a low probability expanding diagonal. We would be wrapping up 4. It would fool the most.
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: wedges to the downside; wedges to the upside. If the high breaks, we just accept the down wave as a :3.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YVjkd0SB/
TJ
SPY 15-min: if a down wave undercuts 550.07, then a contracting diagonal could not continue from here, and this tentative count would apply.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/J9EGZ44v/
TJ
SPY 15-min: since we got over the top; the down wave was reconfigured as a :3; and the up wave is still a :3, also reconfigured. This could be the b wave of the (b) for an expanded flat. Time will tell.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Cq0uOmHH/
TJ
ES 30-min: lower high, lower low on economic data. Looks like the c wave of (b) is underway.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fAMFmI9D/
(The only alternate I see 'might' be a triangle, for the b wave still, but I don't think so).
TJ
As of the open, two closes below the lower band, dropping the odds to 4 - 6% of the next close outside the lower band (not impossible, just lower odds). TJ.
Delete..just fyi - 1.618 was a 5,502, and that has been hit an exceeded lower. TJ.
Deletelow of 28 Apr just exceeded lower. TJ.
Delete..just fyi - 2.618 is at 5,454 if price makes it there. TJ.
Deletefyi - ES low of morning, so far 5,455, pretty close to 2.618. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min - third close below lower intraday band drops the odds to 3 - 5% of next close below band (not impossible, just lower odds). TJ.
DeleteSPY 4-hr: since we went over the top again; very possible we've gotten a five-wave diagonal (or it's triple zigzag counterpart), and it 'could' go higher.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JdQaIJre/
TJ
ES / SPY (CFD): If you count like this, then downward overlap is not until 5,520 or thereabouts. Might be different on different instruments.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/1a907k
TJ
Should be the top or very close. Another abc up to complete the C. Now the President will speak
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ
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ReplyDelete