The whippings will continue until prices behave. Last night the ES futures made a higher open, only to decline this morning to make a lower low. This was followed by a price reversal into what is likely a higher close near the 18-day SMA. The ES daily chart is below.
As previously written, there are too many applicable patterns to make a call yet, although our count has not changed. See yesterday's post for just some the some of the possibilities. There are more - such as upward and downward diagonals, as well.
The one objective time measurement is that the up wave is still shorter in time than the entire down wave was in days. Often, second waves require as much or more time than their first waves. But, if this structure is still a fourth wave, that might not apply. So, caution and flexibility are really needed, especially with the Payroll Report tomorrow morning.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
I read yesterday that the daily rejection of the middle BB line was the first time that has happened in 18 months.
ReplyDeleteThere was no rejection, it just paused there.
DeleteIt happened as recently as the 11th & 12th of April, at least on cash.
ReplyDeleteBears squeezed out at open. However, there's a large bear flag forming on the daily chart. This definitely feels like a C wave, probably of B as part off the much larger A Wave down.
ReplyDeleteR - the A, B is a valid interpretation. But - at this time - so is the minute-i, minute-ii, and so is the minute-iv of the larger Expanding Diagonal A wave, yet (see BBRider's post from yesterday). A C wave up can occur in any of those. TJ.
DeleteYes, I'll have to see the rsi if/when it drops. The idea of one more low and then a strong correction up with daily rsi divergence makes sense, and that would mean the 4 is just about finished.
DeleteHow does the RSI look?
DeleteDaily still room to go up, 4hr at the point where previous sells have occurred. We may just go sideways down and then back up to 5200
DeleteES 1-Hr: using The Principle of Equivalence, the immediate task in wave counting is to see how this up trend evolves.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/14oqvd
TJ
ES 1-Hr: double-close key-reversal bar. The highest bar in the uptrend (so far) closes below two prior lows. It's not 'deadly' because a triangle or flat could always form, but it's not the most-bullish bar the bulls could have come up with.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/14orzx
TJ
we're potentially forming a hanging man candle on the weekly, even if they go slightly higher it will look that way.
ReplyDeletePerfect for a gap down island reversal. Bitcoin expanded flat w2 of 3??
ReplyDeleteI've counted the bars after the AO divergence before the October low, I am adding a link to the image of my chart. First, we have a steeper decline in AO than October, but if lightning strikes twice. We burst up on Monday, close below the open, then the chairs start flying. https://ibb.co/8rKs7YD
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ