tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post1855676058659351043..comments2024-03-29T02:43:21.464-04:00Comments on Elliott_Trader: Powell SpakethElliott_Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14941335198945083652noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-24012389100438256752019-07-11T17:11:30.360-04:002019-07-11T17:11:30.360-04:00Not new, been watching your analysis for a long ti...Not new, been watching your analysis for a long time. You have a bearish bias for far too long as markets move higher. The EW system you use has too many variables, so you're always changing charts, counts, etc... I appreciate what you do and that you believe in it. Chances are we've been doing this around the same amount of time. I just know from trying, it's very difficult to use your methods to make money. They're great to label the market and have fun doing it with other like minded traders and investors, but in the end, IMHO - not an actionable strategy to trade 80% of the time. No ego, just opinion over 30 years. Don't say much, but watching you look for the top is painful sometimes. Wait for a reversal and you'll have one to trade against. Meantime, while you're looking for turn, the market keeps grinding higher. I find it hard to believe anyone following your work was long recently, that's my point. It's still a bull market until it's not. aghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11459660771602604327noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-56440772727719260132019-07-11T16:33:28.185-04:002019-07-11T16:33:28.185-04:00A new post has been started for the next day.A new post has been started for the next day.Elliott_Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14941335198945083652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-46103303718006752102019-07-11T16:33:12.476-04:002019-07-11T16:33:12.476-04:00Yep, I was watching that. Triangle or FLAT still p...Yep, I was watching that. Triangle or FLAT still possible.Elliott_Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14941335198945083652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-79358967813990525652019-07-11T16:25:39.208-04:002019-07-11T16:25:39.208-04:00ET your expanding diagonal C wave pattern you drew...ET your expanding diagonal C wave pattern you drew up earlier on the ES appears to be still in the frame. The late rally can count as a-b-c of wave 4 of the diagonal. It hasn't gone above wave 3 and is longer in time and price vs wave 2. So a 5th wave down in futures to a lower low is a possibility. Your chart:<br />https://invst.ly/b8j4xBillyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04789527978026192974noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-6386208432135447632019-07-11T15:52:08.111-04:002019-07-11T15:52:08.111-04:00..third level of upward overlap now...third level of upward overlap now.Elliott_Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14941335198945083652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-17934789160356909762019-07-11T14:39:49.778-04:002019-07-11T14:39:49.778-04:00@KS .. I'm just saying what applies to one ind...@KS .. I'm just saying what applies to one index may not apply to another. Elliott_Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14941335198945083652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-16392076626639918932019-07-11T14:38:44.773-04:002019-07-11T14:38:44.773-04:00two levels of upward overlap, now.two levels of upward overlap, now.Elliott_Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14941335198945083652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-48466657456334392672019-07-11T14:33:41.156-04:002019-07-11T14:33:41.156-04:00Here is a very short term cash chart.
https://inv...Here is a very short term cash chart.<br /><br />https://invst.ly/b8jg8<br /><br />TJElliott_Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14941335198945083652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-60528900327538078332019-07-11T14:28:02.494-04:002019-07-11T14:28:02.494-04:00S&P500 is down to 78.6% - last chance for a tr...S&P500 is down to 78.6% - last chance for a triangle C wave as W-X-Y, but exercise real care.Elliott_Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14941335198945083652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-71395028720076957222019-07-11T14:12:02.280-04:002019-07-11T14:12:02.280-04:00I completely understand that. I'm just followi...I completely understand that. I'm just following your mantra - "be flexible" BTW, 30yr bonds have broken down after completing a final move higher following a triangle. KShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18149901824139546273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-55650330087265005592019-07-11T13:59:26.881-04:002019-07-11T13:59:26.881-04:00yes, but ES does not have the middle higher high w...yes, but ES does not have the middle higher high which is required by a diagonal.Elliott_Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14941335198945083652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-8309351343407162872019-07-11T13:51:24.785-04:002019-07-11T13:51:24.785-04:00TJ, did you happen to take a look at the NDX link ...TJ, did you happen to take a look at the NDX link in reference to my message earlier? It tends to align with with your latest post.KShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18149901824139546273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-76999849343731506872019-07-11T13:49:40.013-04:002019-07-11T13:49:40.013-04:00Another potential pattern. Market is getting more ...Another potential pattern. Market is getting more & more fragmented. Dow new high, but not S&P. Of course, we are near the upper daily Bollinger Bands.<br /><br />https://invst.ly/b8j4x<br /><br />TJElliott_Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14941335198945083652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-86317716377644423162019-07-11T13:38:32.932-04:002019-07-11T13:38:32.932-04:00Hm looks like move from spx cash 2992 was an impul...Hm looks like move from spx cash 2992 was an impulse, why did it truncate?!Erik Bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14192236925594985316noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-51880269036695465582019-07-11T13:38:04.266-04:002019-07-11T13:38:04.266-04:00Potential C wave of triangle just busted. A larger...Potential C wave of triangle just busted. A larger flat may be playing out.Elliott_Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14941335198945083652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-6255643345811254842019-07-11T13:36:55.880-04:002019-07-11T13:36:55.880-04:00All the FED has to do is to hint that they will cu...All the FED has to do is to hint that they will cut rates and instantly short rates fall to price that in. They can lose control of short rates if traders believe the FED is behind the curve, where the FED as to play catch up (though such traders need eco data to land on their side of the trade to prove them right.) What long rates normally do is front run future inflation expectations and economic growth. Unfortunately, that "tell" may be screwed up by central banks around the world buying long bonds. Eco growth is currently fine. Inflation continues to remain weak because banks refuse to lower credit card rates, where in the past they charged CC rates prime + a number, such a 5%. So 2% prime and 5% bank add on - CC rate of 7%. Now they charge prime +13-20%, and when prime lowers the banks refuse to lower CC rates. That was in the past how consumers benefited from the FED lowering rates. Now it's the other way round, where banks are acting as if rates are super high and rising.Kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04698279995158493856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-58759433115935433252019-07-11T13:27:40.005-04:002019-07-11T13:27:40.005-04:00AO beautifully chronicling triangle's progress...AO beautifully chronicling triangle's progress.... :)Tachyonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10866268625664509045noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-75684493057998226972019-07-11T13:25:40.092-04:002019-07-11T13:25:40.092-04:00Thanks TJ. Hmmm, this link below is the intraday o...Thanks TJ. Hmmm, this link below is the intraday of the NDX. Do you see an ending diagonal or B wave of flat? From an ending diagonal point of view, 4<2 and rest of the measurements are fine. It just doesn't have the right "look"<br />https://ibb.co/Gs9w3wvKShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18149901824139546273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-21830166364265861142019-07-11T13:23:31.374-04:002019-07-11T13:23:31.374-04:00Yep! Very tricksy! :)Yep! Very tricksy! :)Tachyonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10866268625664509045noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-32139429543271457252019-07-11T13:20:24.601-04:002019-07-11T13:20:24.601-04:00If the impulse plays out, then would this be wave ...If the impulse plays out, then would this be wave i of 3, where wave 1 is SPXFutures 2915 (June 26th) to 3005 (July 3rd)? If the answer is yes, even a standard run of the mill impulse (i.e. 1.61 Wave 3 extension) would quickly take us to 3100+TJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02051746863606911254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-54199986480062456552019-07-11T13:14:05.535-04:002019-07-11T13:14:05.535-04:00With the current downward wave below the EMA-34, t...With the current downward wave below the EMA-34, that is one way to count an 'e' wave as completed. However, it could 'also' still be a smaller degree .b wave of d. You know triangles.<br /><br />https://invst.ly/b8iuy<br /><br />TJElliott_Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14941335198945083652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-81391727055299355612019-07-11T12:46:10.196-04:002019-07-11T12:46:10.196-04:00Are we there yet?! :)Are we there yet?! :)Tachyonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10866268625664509045noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-76707855872025139932019-07-11T12:03:26.417-04:002019-07-11T12:03:26.417-04:00Here's an update as of 11:35 am ET. Triangle i...Here's an update as of 11:35 am ET. Triangle is possible; truncated flat is possible.<br /><br />https://invst.ly/b8ht6<br /><br />TJElliott_Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14941335198945083652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-81876786473612385192019-07-11T11:09:49.513-04:002019-07-11T11:09:49.513-04:00Current situation; ES 30-min small weak hammer can...Current situation; ES 30-min small weak hammer candle, plus higher high candle.<br /><br />https://invst.ly/b8hgg<br /><br />TJElliott_Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14941335198945083652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-43631564882990464932019-07-11T10:36:18.185-04:002019-07-11T10:36:18.185-04:00Since the original potential triangle broke lower,...Since the original potential triangle broke lower, then 2,996 is 62% for a larger c wave, or lower for an even larger triangle or flat.Elliott_Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14941335198945083652noreply@blogger.com