Thursday, July 16, 2020

Weekly GOLD - Interim Report

I often get questions on the GOLD market. The only thing I track are gold futures, but that count is not too hard to decipher if we use the principles of degree labeling. The weekly chart is below.

GOLD Futures - Weekly Nearest Close Only - Primary [ B ]

So, within the Primary [ B ] wave up, there appears to be three distinct waves. They are Intermediate (A), (B), (C). In order to have confidence in the pattern, the principle of degree labeling states that all of the sub-waves of (C) must be smaller than the Intermediate (A) wave that started the pattern.

As you can see, when counted in this manner, then Minor 1, 3, and 5 which head in the same direction as Intermediate (A), and are smaller degree waves than (A), are indeed smaller than Intermediate (A). Unlike certain large Elliott wave firms, I can not find a (W)-(X)-(Y) pattern that fulfills this requirement. That is because 1 + 3 > (A), and that would violate degree labeling.

This means Gold is likely in the Minor 5th wave up, and it may very well end as an ending contracting diagonal which is currently trying to peek up over the parallel Elliott trend channel. The MACD is on a higher high, and that typically only happens within a "(C)" wave.

From a time standpoint, it should be noted that since Intermediate (C) is 'longer in time' than Intermediate (A). This means that the two waves 'must' be of the same degree or the (C) wave must be of a higher degree. From a degree standpoint, note that Minor wave 4, down, is shorter in both price and time than Intermediate (B), and it's subwaves are shorter than their higher degree waves in the downward direction, as well. For example, within Minor 4, then minute ((c)) is shorter than Minor C of Intermediate (B), down.

Readers of this blog should attempt to count the 5th wave higher for their practice and education, and to share with others if they see fit.

Have an excellent rest of the day.
TraderJoe

9 comments:

  1. Superb analysis. The end of this uptrend should coincide with indices top.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I put us in Primary [B] up, which implies Primary [A] at the lower left, and Primary [C] to come down to the lower right.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Morning Joe
    Sure gold is technically over bought on a short term basis, Im in it for a much longer time frame than a few days, weeks, months. Take a look at where GDX is trading current, then look at where GDX traded 2011 when gold was where it is now, IMO GDX very undervalued compared to gold, I like the miners and gold itself. I have a few of the 1 ounce bars I bought 30+ years ago and have no plans on selling. I continue to wonder what happens when central bank influence is no longer considered a positive. Will fundamentals then matter? Have a great day, be well :)

    ReplyDelete
  4. Here's the intraday wave-counting screen for the ES 30-min with daily pivots and nearest fractals.

    https://invst.ly/rh7s6

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  5. Tj general question in a triangle can c be lower than a. I thought it was against the rules but i have seen some ew sites label a triangle where a ended higher than c. Thks

    ReplyDelete
  6. Is it possible that the x wave concluded at the June 29th low, and now we are in c of y?

    ReplyDelete
  7. There is a new post started for the next day.

    ReplyDelete