tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post3673858596991343624..comments2024-03-29T02:43:21.464-04:00Comments on Elliott_Trader: Principle of EquivalenceElliott_Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14941335198945083652noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-76862944556346610682015-10-18T12:41:02.596-04:002015-10-18T12:41:02.596-04:00Hi Steve - Actually this count was not missed but ...Hi Steve - Actually this count was not missed but ruled out for one reason. Usually within a 1-2-i-ii, the wave ii is 'smaller' than the wave 2 because the market is gathering momentum for the next bigger downside move, and the up move is smaller as a result. So, we have stayed away from that count for that reason. Also, it 'obviously' projects a huge downward movement if that count were to be the correct one, and the S&P has not even been able to break the lows yet, so, at present, it seems like an unrealistic wave scenario - until or unless there are new lows below the August low seen. If so, we can adjust at that time.<br /><br />As for probability, it's a combination of three factors: sentiment, momentum, and number of allowable wave counts from the current formation. For example, there are some times that longer-term sentiment is so extreme it over-rules short term momentum almost entirely. And there are other times, when sentiment is just 'stuck in the middle' and provides no clues, so market momentum gets the nod at that point. But, in addition there is 'almost always' more than one path the market can take. For example, let's say a third wave has been seen. The market can 'almost always' in that case make either a flat fourth wave or a triangle. So, with momentum in gear, the probabilities are 50:50 on the exact pattern, but much higher that a fifth wave will follow. What takes time is assessing those probability on a longer term time frame.Elliott_Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14941335198945083652noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-22797604517614774162015-10-16T11:59:01.199-04:002015-10-16T11:59:01.199-04:00You did miss one count Joe. It probably ranks the...You did miss one count Joe. It probably ranks the lowest probability but wanted to note it at least. The old 1-2, 1-2 from a failure top starting from 7/20/15... Thanks for the posts. I did want to ask.. How do you determine your probabilities?Sgrifhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15179194944217996591noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-962452887688194392015-10-13T18:24:36.371-04:002015-10-13T18:24:36.371-04:00One thing to note. the DJIA is bumping up against ...One thing to note. the DJIA is bumping up against the 2000 / 2007 trendline (in log scale). It tagged it today intraday and reversed lower into the close. Trendlines always amaze me.Sgrifhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15179194944217996591noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-15048714191514602322015-10-13T16:33:55.158-04:002015-10-13T16:33:55.158-04:00Excellent analysis.Excellent analysis.pikemanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09821167742132132101noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4251274909260261631.post-2196287779814490752015-10-13T13:38:12.476-04:002015-10-13T13:38:12.476-04:00Loved it Joe! Thanks a lot for posting this updat...Loved it Joe! Thanks a lot for posting this update just in the nick of time. It answered all my questions.<br /><br />Much appreciated<br />Mark Thimeschhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11121786376695375337noreply@blogger.com