Is that a plain bagel, or a nothing burger? While the world waited for a decision on the situation in the Middle East, nothing was delivered. It's like the Uber driver entrusted with keeping the meal warm, ate it for themselves on the way to your house. Meanwhile, back at the market, prices made a new higher high and then appeared to put in much of either a triangle or a Flat. This was the likely end-of-the-month sloppiness known as window-dressing.
It might be that the message was deemed to be best delivered when the potential 'first-of-the-month' money, the passive monthly inflows that usually occur around the first trading day of the new month, could reliably blunt any news that was perceived negatively - even if it was supposedly good news.
Bear in mind a flat or expanded flat could potentially challenge 7,560 - 7,530 on this chart if a triangle should not be in play. But, as far as the potential triangle goes, its centerline, the wave 3 peak, was crossed over again toward the end of the futures session, as shown. (Degree labels shown are just for reference and will be adjusted later.)
So, let's see how things go on Monday.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend,
TraderJoe
Ah...yes! Market gyrations on the never-ending prospect of a "nearly done" Iran deal. Never mind the unambiguous statements of Iran's leaders concerning the matter, lol! Have a great week-end everyone!
ReplyDeleteTJ and the community,
ReplyDeleteIs ES, SPY, and SPX contracting diagonals from the covid low not busted up here? Using either the fib extension or back of the envelope, I show them as busted.
Answered previously in this post; note where the 100% level is at the high. And the "Invalidation of CED".
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2026/05/for-first-time.html
TJ
I will redo my numbers in the morning.
DeleteI just looked at the numbers. Seems like BB has a. point. If 5th wave started around close to 5000, the 3rd wave was about 2500 points so 5000 plus 2500 lands around 7500ish as limit. Not 8500
DeleteThat's linear, not log and doesn't include inflation. That's why log charts are used over periods of 5-10 yrs. TJ.
DeleteI am in log.
Delete(3) 6147.43 - (2) 3491.58 = 2655.85
2655.85 + (4) 4835.04 = 7490.89 CED invalidation.
(1) 4818.62 vs (4) 4835.04 has no overlap.
(3) is around 1.27 the time of (1)
https://imgur.com/KH7R2lN
TJ, how did your system get that 8512.78 number?
I think there's an error in the way your Fibo ruler is calculating on a log chart. I have run into that on many non-professional charting systems. The simple way to show the error is to just 'clone a box', as below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mr5Zx2SQ/
TJ
I will try that. How are you handling the lack of overlap? Does your chart have this issue?
DeleteI have addressed that three times now: the Dow, the Russell and the Nasdaq all have overlap. The "Elliott Wave Principle", says diagonals 'almost always' overlap. Not 'always' and the miss is quite small in the ES. So, it's still the best fitting pattern until/unless lengths get violated.
DeleteTJ.
Don't forget that diagonals were never originally identified by Elliot. Any discussion is rooted in RP missives.
Delete@Roy C.. while you are correct for expanding diagonals, you are incorrect for contracting diagonals.
Delete"Yes. Ralph Nelson Elliott introduced diagonal triangles (distinguishing them from horizontal triangles) in his original work. While the terminology for leading and ending diagonals evolved later, the core concept of a diagonal triangle and its distinct structural characteristics are documented in his final major 1946 book, Nature's Law - The Secret of the Universe."
The key word there is Triangle, intended as a corrective structure, like a running 4th wave, not as a component of an impulse. BUT, I actually do believe diagonals exist. I'm just leery of RP.
DeleteIncorrect again, Roy. Often the fifth of the five.
Delete"In his 1946 treatise Nature's Law – The Secret of the Universe, Ralph Nelson Elliott first introduced diagonal triangles on page 21. He formally defined them as five-wave patterns that appear in specific market contexts (often the 5th wave of an impulse) and explained how their boundary lines converge, differing from standard impulses whose waves run parallel."
TJ
I guess his book becomes required reading for me.
DeleteSounds good! TJ
DeleteHere is the /cl triangle still intact.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/LFOnud6
Gold corrective channel.
https://imgur.com/11K1P6L
Just fyi - a hard to find story
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnn.com/2026/05/31/politics/trump-iran-deal-changes
TJ
What a disappointment.
DeleteES new high - likely the front-running of the 'first-of-the-month' money. TJ.
ReplyDeleteLol! Possibly "front running" an oncoming freight train...! :)
DeleteI find all three of these fascinating how they interacted with the midline.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/undefined
https://imgur.com/AzCZzwm
https://imgur.com/jChkrYT
I think this is becoming more interesting as we approach a 1.618 extension of 1.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/sfaebQ6
I have been busy, but I think TJ mentioned this as the next thing to look at after a CED failure.
Yes, that would be a next possibility. TJ.
DeleteDo you really see spy go to 3900
DeleteWould have to get into the territory of 2 for validation.
Delete...and be longer than 2.
Delete...without going below 2 and be in the zigzag family of waves. TJ.
DeleteES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen. Here is some of that 'first-of-the-month' passive money coming in, after an overnight high in the futures following what looks like that triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YbioFQFJ/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ