Don't exhaust yourself this weekend. Every YouTuber, stock trader and technical analyst will try to sell you their wares (trying to at least get your attention for views, clicks, and/or to get you to purchase memberships, ads, or subscriptions). Don't bother. Get some rest and relaxation instead. The ES futures made a weekly "pinbar" or "spinning top" candle - the likes of which we have not seen in months. It is not confirmed yet. Still, it is a green pinbar which is a tad weaker than had it been a red-bodied candle.
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| ES Futures - Weekly - Pinbar |
So, it is simple. The candle is either confirmed with a significantly lower confirming candle next week - or it is not - and it is invalidated with a higher high candle. Elliott analysts know how to handle both.
Have an excellent start to the weekend,
TraderJoe
ES seems to.have made 5 down. 5th still working
ReplyDelete.seems like
Look at all indexes and notice that we are at the top of the upper channel dating back to decades or in the case of the SPX/ Dow ---100 years. We went parabolic by all measures. The Dow topped in February and refuses to make new highs. The transports have declined over 20%. Bond yields are moving higher, the new Fed is always tested by the market within months, and we are in mid-term election year which average 20% drawdowns. We have a good chance of filling the down gaps today on Monday, but you are basically picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer at these resistance levels. The QQQ only needed 14 trading days to crash 30% in 2000 right after the top. It crashed 70% in one year. Don't forget that new tariffs hit by July.
ReplyDeleteI wonder if China told Iran to hold off on any deal with the US until after the summit last week? This will make China look like the world leader in diplomatic relations and gain more trust--- especially if they broker a deal between Iran and the US maybe as early as Sunday or early next week.
DeleteOne metric I watch closely is the behavior of the FIRST wave down after a top at this degree of trend: it tends to take out multiple S/R levels. That kind of momentum not quite evident today as price aggressively bought off the bottom and NOT subsequently taking out the morning lows, even after hours. Unless that happens in futures Sunday night, I will be remaining agnostic for the time being.
ReplyDeleteJust to be clear (regarding 'multiple S/R levels'), the market could not make it up to the R1 pivot overnight. Then, it dropped down through the daily pivot, the S1 pivot and the S2 pivot technically meeting the definition you posted of 'multiple'. And the ES futures took out the morning lows. So, if you want something more than that, please be specific. TJ.
DeleteYou are correct. I took another look at futures as well and there was a lower low. Looks like 5 down.
DeleteBy way of clarification I will tell you the level I am watching and why. If you look at an hourly chart you will see the market gapped higher on the 8th in a run at 7400 which resulted in pitched battle for that level. The bulls managed to close price above it on the 11th but price gapped below on the 12th and headed down to 7338.54 before the last run to a new ATH. Friday's gap down took price to 7397.50 an essentially spent the rest of the session trading back above 7400 and in fact closing above it. I was looking for that first wave down to take out both 7400 and 7338.54 and to do it with momentum. The bulls contested 7400 and only after the close did price move below, a caution flag for me. We never challenged the low of the 12th.
DeleteES 1-hr: the futures 'formally' invalidated the upward expanding diagonal (low probability, as mentioned) pattern by trading below 7,399 at 7,397, so far in the Sunday night session.
ReplyDeleteTJ
...chart below
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/OYh5ZPA7/
TJ
...and now lower. TJ.
DeleteVery interesting development. Breaking the low of the 12th overnight would be significant and I think would put the March lows in play.
DeleteWhy March low, 7000 is suport
DeletePrice did consolidate around 7100. I am assuming a wave 1 at some degree of trend is underway so based on wave measurement 5 full waves down could reasonably take out the March low. Of course the putative 1 down likely incomplete so my comment is clearly speculative.
DeleteIt's depends on oil
DeleteThe spot price of Oil is laughable lie. You try getting delivery for spot price...not happening!! Lol!
DeleteStarting to look like nested 1,2s in some indices. DJIA flagging price action looking ominous....
ReplyDeleteLook at oil and yield, they go opposite of the indices, 10 year yield is going to check 4.5
DeleteThat measurement for the /cl triangle is also were spot physical delivery is in the lower $130s.
ReplyDeleteES Daily - slow stochastics is 'currently' not embedded although price is above 18-day SMA. Watch it carefully for the day.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3adM7nWv/
Try to follow local technicals in the meantime. Futures and cash can be considered to have a :5, down.
TJ
ES new marginal lower low. TJ.
Delete..and from the marginal lower low, lower intraday band and S1 daily pivot, up to and through the intraday 18-period SMA on the intraday wave-counting-screen.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7v7MOT5f/
TJ
I really would have liked to see this wave down take out the low of the 12th...still cautious...we shall see.
Delete30 minute SPY definitely 5 waves down, now correcting upwards.
ReplyDeletehttps://schrts.co/YChnVXEa
Just looking at the S&P 500 Cash Index, I can count 4 waves up from Thursday 23 April (note the very nice 5 wave signature in the Elliott Wave Oscillator for wave iii).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zbqB8Hs2/
With just 3 waves down, and now upwards overlap, it looks to me like we may have just entered the fifth wave in this sequence, perhaps to new highs.
Of course the market could be making a bearing leading diagonal as well. This week should reveal which pattern is the correct count. 😉
"bearish leading diagonal" 😹
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ