Tuesday, May 12, 2026

Continuation of Channel Count

The ES 2-hourly chart is below, continuing the count that was shown on the weekend. The count is both very mature and it is full of risk.


This count provides alternation between wave ii and wave iv. Elements of risk include 1) there was not yet a new higher high today, 2) today broke a closing only line on the ES 4-hr chart, and made a back-test of it (interested readers should verify this), 3) multiple RSI divergences are shown on this timeframe, 4) a wave structure this steep in so few days could wind up in a final diagonal, a final triangle or even a count failure, and 5) we have noted the current news risk several times already.

So, for now, a wave-counting-stop (WCS) has been placed below today's low.

Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
at

13 comments:

  1. TachyonMay 13, 2026 at 8:50 AM

    Has anyone ever seen futures make a new ATH and the following cash session fail to? Is that even possible?????!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderMay 13, 2026 at 12:25 PM

      Your question is answered below @ 12:24 pm. TJ.

      Delete
  2. Elliott_TraderMay 13, 2026 at 9:55 AM

    ES/SPY(CFD) 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen. There were a pretty clear five-waves up in the overnight. Then a drop to the 62% retrace. So, either the wave finished at the high, or the five waves is the 'a' wave of a diagonal to follow.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/FQAMZXh0/

    The risks abound. There was a 55 point ES drop from 7,455 to 7,400 from 5 am to 10 AM. Triangle, diagonal and even a larger 'double-flat' (iv) remain possible; as does the terminal at the high. This is the Fourth Wave Conundrum - that happens at every degree of trend - in spades.

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderMay 13, 2026 at 10:00 AM

      ES 30-min: ES closed below the band with the slow stochastic over-sold. TJ

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderMay 13, 2026 at 10:37 AM

      ES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: now a close inside the band which resets the number of consecutive closes.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/xZCNCc4B/

      TJ

      Delete
  3. Elliott_TraderMay 13, 2026 at 10:54 AM

    SPY (cash) 15-min: higher intraday high.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/KjUqYPRW/

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderMay 13, 2026 at 11:03 AM

      SPY (cash) 15-min: gap filled.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/2KdfzM41/

      TJ

      Delete
  4. Elliott_TraderMay 13, 2026 at 12:24 PM

    ES has a new all-time-high, as does SPY. Same day; same time. TJ.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderMay 13, 2026 at 12:27 PM

      Here's the new high in SPY.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/O0iyBSBK/

      TJ

      Delete
  5. JackMay 13, 2026 at 12:35 PM

    Do you guys see this triangle https://www.tradingview.com/x/aNR6zOiu/

    ReplyDelete
  6. Elliott_TraderMay 13, 2026 at 1:38 PM

    fyi only - worth noting: NYSE advance/declines = 1,023 / 1,711 with 93 NH 102 NL
    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  7. Elliott_TraderMay 13, 2026 at 1:56 PM

    SPY cash) 15-min: getting awfully quiet up here (complacency?)

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/OmnjAnq6/

    TJ

    ReplyDelete