The daily picture in the ES futures still looks like the chart below. Nothing has changed there, yet. We are still waiting to see if a fifth wave, minute ⓥ, completes and if it completes with good form. Since the third wave in this configuration is shorter in price than the first wave, the Fibonacci ruler is shown to see if the fifth wave stays shorter than the third. There isn't an upward length violation at this time. If there should be, we will adjust.
As far as the local count on the SPY cash 30-min chart, there is a leading expanding diagonal first wave (where the zigzags first started coming from - because they initially couldn't be counted as clean 'fives'), then a second wave zigzag, then a third wave which just notches out a wave that is longer than the first. This chart starts with minute-iv, circle-iv, or ((iv)) at the lower left. From there, this would be the minute ⓥ wave.
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There is one way to count the pattern as complete, but it doesn't match up with the futures. A further way to see the pattern ending would be with a ivth wave triangle. Right now, a parallel is being maintained. If a triangle forms, the parallel could be breached. We note the Elliott Wave Oscillator is not near the zero line yet on this timeframe.
Have an excellent rest of the day.
TraderJoe
Thanks good clarity. Sp trying to make triangle in small-time frame which substantiates your count
ReplyDeleteThat catch of the leading diagonal on the SPY solves a lot.
ReplyDeleteSPY (Cash) 30-min: SPY testing lower rising channel line now. EWO now approaching the fourth wave conditions (+10% to -40% of prior third wave peak). Triangle still on the table.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ACEfCbK9/
TJ
ES/SPY (CFD) 10-min: within the larger possible triangle context, this is the best way I can so far count today. It works best with after-hours pricing, as SPY would have a length violation. But the after-hours new high on the CFD, made the lengths correct.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/y6s17NWc/
Still, given the newsy context of the market currently, watch the high and the low. Maybe a diagonal is an alternate, but not just yet.
TJ
Amazing how news and ew work togethee. Dont know which follows which
ReplyDeleteEntirely possible news intended to provide cover for behind-the scenes activity. My opinion based on the fact that some of the news headlines are total B.S.,yet the market "responds". Lol!
DeleteExcept first time the instant reaction was 100 points today 20...
DeleteES/SPY (CFD) 4-hr chart : the wave-count, and the MACD divergences suggest that we are getting awfully, awfully close. Close enough to monitor for a daily reversal signal but not to believe it until one is obtained and confirmed.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FJDX51LE/
TJ
..and an additional thought: fourth waves being what they are, you might watch to be sure (4) is not an expanding triangle as the marginal higher highs are in place in the CFD.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5gDONQ5P/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ