On the daily chart, price on the ES futures contract went up to the upper daily Bollinger Band. We 'can' count five waves up, which may not exactly be done yet, but they could be. The daily chart of the ES futures is below. Note that this up wave exceeded a prior high in "less time" than the down wave took to form from the point shown (blue arrow to dashed line).
So, this could be minute-ⓘ of Minor C, or just minuet (i) of Minor C. Time will tell. The hourly chart is below.
It looks live five-up with an extended first wave, as we suspected. Of course, the upper band is just where Ira's method would expect profit-taking from the Smart Money.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
ES/SPY (CFD) 15-min: Overnight there was a very long-in-time wave which has now made a new higher high than the potential truncation high. So, it is likely that this is a triangle with a chance for the higher 5th wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MEuDL6cx/
TJ
Reminder: CPI scheduled for the bottom of the hour ~5 mins. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES/SPY (CFD) 15-min - CPI comes in as expected up +0.9% (gulp), and a new higher high is registered.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NvwzG0qJ/
I put a wave-counting stop below the 'e' wave of the triangle. One could also use the low of the 'c' wave, or the low of the triangle, depending on preference.
TJ
ES/SPY (CFD) 15-min - CPI comes in as expected up +0.9% (gulp), and a new higher high is registered.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NvwzG0qJ/
I put a wave-counting stop below the 'e' wave of the triangle. One could also use the low of the 'c' wave, or the low of the triangle, depending on preference.
TJ
...there are more econ reports this morning, scheduled for 10 am ET. TJ.
DeleteThanks TJ for your continuous guidance, still reading you everyday and trying to remain calm and open minded to ups and downs and which ones are most probable.
ReplyDeletehttps://schrts.co/HYjxqTNk
ReplyDeleteOne thing that's concerning to me is that MACD Histogram is actually showing an abc print from the low. 2 hour SPY
In no way am I saying you are incorrect, in fact, the bottom panel shows the a,b,c as a very good alternate.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RmDgdMXF/
This compares the ES/SPY (CFD) or ES futures to SPY 30-min. In both cases, there is a higher high in the AO, EWO (Awesome Oscillator, EW Oscillator). You will note in about 95 candles you see the higher high, and the EWO has not yet come back to zero. So, because of the higher high, I am treating it like an impulse third wave until it is proven not to be.
This is in contrast to using the 2-hr SPY, which I realize is a preferred timeframe for some to chart. Note that chart only has about 29-30 candles in the histogram. And the histogram 'does not' have a higher high.
This is one reason why The Eight-Fold-Path Method says to use the timeframe that provides 120-160 candles, rather than picking a static timeframe. As of yet, there is no downward overlap with either a/i however the first wave is counted.
But I certainly agree this is an awful & grindy wave. And it may well prove to be corrective. So, I am on my toes for the same concern you are.
TJ
..and another point in favor of the potential correction is the Kennedy channel technique surrounds the entire up wave so far, depending on where you pick the first wave in the set. TJ.
Delete...and the problem with the a,b,c as diagrammed is that ② is longer-in-time than red-b which seems like the degree violation. So, it is more likely iv of the set by degree definitions. TJ.
DeleteThanks, TJ. It does indeed appear that insufficient bars is the missing element in my bag of tricks. Duly noted.
DeleteES/SPY (CFD) 15-min: if it was a triangle, price is below the Ⓔ wave. One might try a channel down and see if it holds. If not, and it gets too whippy, maybe an expanding diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pxM6TiCg/
TJ
Corrective is more likely in my opinion too when you consider that inflation is up and consumer sentiment is down. I kept as low probability that this could be wave 4 and that we could be heading to lower lows to complete B. Where is the 9th fold step when we need it for more clarity about the future?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vFfWpEnq/ points to 3 waves so far can form 5th
ReplyDeleteBeautiful parallel lines from the zero point--- indicative of a correction.
DeleteGentlemen, rather than rehashing all of those arguments, which I fully conceded as alternates, except for degree labeling, please just look at the following information. This up wave is 'already' longer the prior up wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CcFhMADX/
So, it must at least be of the same degree as that prior up wave, or be of one higher degree.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ