Phasers on Stun! The whippy after-hours trading caused by galactically stellar earnings beats & misses appears to have created a sub-wave as follows on the 4 Hr chart of the ES/SPY (CFD) below.
On the prior post I didn't draw the parallel in for nothing. This count was possible by reducing the degree of the diagonal by one degree and suggesting that it might be a leading diagonal. Notice that ii is smaller than (iv) in price and time, so the degree labeling still works.
We don't 'know' that this parallel is the case yet but a clear invalidation level for the count exists. Remember, tomorrow is the last day of the month which often, not always, sees end-of-the-month window dressing before the potential first-of-the-month passive inflows from the usual sources.
Have an excellent rest of the evening. Be cautious, patient, calm and flexible this evening as traders around the world - in all time zones - give Chairman Powell his Intermezzo Curtain Call.
TraderJoe
ED's glaring refusal to retrace to origin in "less time" did get my attention as a potential harbinger of bullish tides. Lol!
ReplyDeleteOne of the things I am learning to appreciate about EW is that there is ALWAYS a number that tells you a count is incorrect. I really have learned a lot from TJ in this regard as he, unlike most so-called EW analysts, faithfully adheres that maxim. I ditched my EWI subscription a lifetime ago when it slowly dawned on me that they cared/knew nothing about expanded flats and invalidation points. Just saying...
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: here is the morning 'window-dressing'. Can go further. Watch the low. TJ.
ReplyDeleteTJ, can the subwaves of the subwaves of a diagonal also be "threes"? Just postulating that the price action from April 17 in the SPY may be a b of lower degree.
ReplyDeleteyes, they can but usually 'ending' at a high, not leading. Also, see below for another 'three-wave' count. TJ.
DeleteES/SPY (CFD) 4-hr: we'll see how the day wraps up. Higher highs are possible. So is this triangle, as things have been very sloppy, so far.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/tzeO6RCT/
TJ
How well does that channel?
DeleteIt would look like this, overall with 130 candles.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/cYsvcUoL/
The MACD / EWO would be at lows, still.
TJ
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DeleteLooks more like the Kennedy Channeling Technique
DeleteES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: there a new all-time-high, confirmed in ES. And this is likely the 'front-running' of the 'first-of-the-month' money and possibly AAPL's earnings tonight, too. TJ.
ReplyDeleteHere we have a nice chart, EW #3 I would say:
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/10xF0INE/
Thanks TJ,
ReplyDeleteThe rise from April 13 till today in general terms look like a 3rd wave or 5th on longer time frame?
It is unprecedented.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Regardless of the pablum in the news story, I beg to differ. There is nothing, absolutely nothing unprecedented about the ES futures traveling within their Bollinger Band, an algorithm designed to show prices trading within them 95% of the time.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UeiN6xnN/
I said it before. I'll say it again. You are worried about the wrong things. When companies can buy-back their stock as much as they like, and the FED can print as much money as they like (and they 'have' expanded the balance sheet since Powell said they would restart) then money is not an object until the cycle turns.
When the cycle turns, the markets will trade within the bands 95% of the time to the downside, too. And everyone will 'call it' unprecedented too. But it won't be.
TJ
When bro..hopefully in our lifetime
DeleteMaybe when the 10-yr note breaks out of its monthly triangle as below, as a sign that the "bond vigilantes" have had enough. Could be due to a further inflation shock, and/or foreign purchases of bonds drastically decreasing.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Fsncyxp0/
That's just my opinion. You know I just count the waves.
TJ
That is correct. Also Japanese 2yr-10 yr all up. They need to increase interest rate or take out money from US equities, infract world.
DeleteOn your buy back and liquidity comment from 2009 till date no ew count could have predicted such a run. Corrections were very minor except Covid which was not financial disruption. If that is the case then I can also draw a chart and say dow 100k as Neelet. It is always buy the dip then.
ReplyDeleteAnd here is the first-of-the month money with a SPY hourly gap up. So far, there is a five-three-five 5-3-5 on the chart. A fourth and fifth waves are certainly 'possible'.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LofrYRoN/
The negative case 'would' be that if this wave gets so long in adding the four & the five that it becomes 'all' of Minor C.
TJ
Sell in May and Go Away
DeleteSPY 30-min: we had a 1 point length failure of above count, requiring an extension now. Just counting ... there are 'no' down signal bars yet. Gap is not closed. Price is 'over' the 18-day SMA, bias is 'up'.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/eMi0tmou/
TJ
..there is ES mile-marker 7,300. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: if things start looking 'funky' in cash (meaning disproportionate), you may wish to switch over to the futures or CFD in the 30-minute timeframe and temporarily follow this parallel.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5PywWRfE/
TJ
TJ - I'm also aligned with your opinion regarding bond vigilantes. I've been watching TYX and TNX for more than a year, I think they have the potential to bring the house of cards down. On Thursday this week, the yields were getting precarious and the BoJ intervened with JPY causing a sharp reversal in the Dollar and cooled off the long end of the yield curve. I'm not smart enough but there's a connection between the carry trade, currencies and yields. Jeff Gundlack has a interesting point of view in that the yields will actually rise when then next recession occurs because that's when the ability to pay the debt is impacted the most as tax revenues and growth decreases. We'll look for your guidance on target of where the TLT, yields, or other bond products end up out of the triangle breakout.
ReplyDeleteI expect a shit show, economically and socially. Apologies for the Friday doom post.
IFF the triangle breaks to the upside (i.e. someone doesn't 'intervene'), then the usual triangle target from ordinary technical analysis is 'the widest width of the triangle added to the breakout point' UNLESS the triangle turns out to be a type of triangle both Prechter and Neely recognize as 'non-limiting', where price pushes 20% into the apex of the current triangle. Then, it can go much further. TJ.
DeleteES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: so far only three-waves down in a small 5-min channel and upward overlap. With only three-waves down, The Fourth Wave Conundrum applies. 1) 'Could' continue lower as a larger wave four, down - seems a little less likely on a Friday, 2) could form a triangle into Mon/Tue, 3) could form a Flat or expanded flat and go over the top again.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/no1PmG8S/
TJ
Interestingly I hit all in the chart and the count becomes clear.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.IXIC
are you just trying to heckle me until I lose my patience, because that's what it feels like? Once again, you are focusing on all the wrong things, not doing any wave counting, and I don't see what the point is. I have been patient enough with trying to decipher your comments. Keep it up and they will all start going to spam. TJ.
DeletePlease don't do that, Manu is my sentiment or contrarian signal, do the opposite lol =)
DeleteI'm just half joking. Have a good weekend all
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ