The daily SPY cash chart now has about 108 candles since the Minor A wave top. It's been a very, very long slog but there are enough waves to claim that the Minor B wave formed as an expanding triangle, currently meeting all wave rules and guidelines.
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| SPY Cash - Daily - Expanding Triangle option for Minor B |
Can this current wave go lower? It can. It has not yet reached the 150% length given as a 'rule' for each of the waves of the expanding triangle.
Just a couple of quick notes. Each wave of the triangle is longer-in-time than its prior wave in the same direction. The up waves never exceeded 150% of their prior waves, following the 'rules' for an expanding triangle.
Neely says he has never seen an expanding triangle for a fourth wave. Well, this one would be a B wave, concurring with his observations.
Further, we can only state that it is possible for the same waves that make up an expanding triangle to make up an expanded flat if price pressure really gives way. But, so far, it hasn't so we need to see what upward retraces there are, and how far they go.
Lastly, this structure took place on the daily chart which carries some overall weight. It's not like this is a five-minute, or hourly chart. It's made up of lot & lots of individual and collective votes from around the world. So, if this structure holds up, it may play its part as occurring before the last wave in the sequence. In fact, Neely indicates that often the final wave after an expanded triangle fails to make a new high. This will likely be a good test of that observation.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Hi TJ - Good call on the expanding diagonal from March 8 post. I'm trying to orient myself to the big picture, macro count and the implication of this expanding triangle on it. My understanding is that the expanding triangle is a penultimate wave and we should expect a trip back to 690 area that could be a failed c (or iv) wave. What's the larger degree count there, B or a 5? Trying to make sense of the degrees. Thanks and enjoy the weekend
ReplyDeleteNothing has changed so it was easy to update. Each degree is properly labeled as best I can tell. They all fit nicely into the nested pattern. Wave (3) is shorter than wave (1) on the log-scale chart, so wave (5) should be shorter than wave (3). Wave (4) overlaps in the Dow, NQ & Russell, and just misses by 1-2 S&P points in the SPX.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/A85iA9Ey/
Because there has only been a 23.6% drop overall, I am not 'assuming' the B wave is over. I suggested it could be 'either' the expanding triangle or the expanded flat. I am not locked in on either one, so no one else should be either.
Enjoy the rest of the weekend, too.
TJ