The Extended First Wave Count to Minor A

The concept of this chart has not changed since it was originally published on May 29 at this LINK. It is still The Extended First Wave Count to Minor A. It is now out to 130 candles, and it is still the count that 'best' meets the rules and guidelines of the wave principle, and which follows The Eight-Fold-Path Method for Counting an Impulse Wave. The ES 8-hr chart is below. Please remember that double parenthesis, i.e. (( )) is the same in text as a circle, for minute waves. Thus, in text ((i)) = ⓘ and so forth. With that in mind we have added some recent details.

In the extended first wave count, then, wave ((v)) < ((iii)) < ((i)). Notice wave ((iv)) is actually somewhat longer in price than wave ((ii)) but does not overlap wave ((i)). This is likely a key that the count is correct because the two waves, ((ii)) and ((iv)), should be of the same degree - or else ((iv)) is of one higher degree, since it is longer. My contention is that they are of the same degree. Further, note that all of wave ((iii)) is above a 0 - ((ii)) trend line. And wave ((ii)) is much less than 38% which typically indicates an extended first wave.

We are now likely in the Minor B wave, and in the (b)-3 wave of a B wave at that. So, wave counting here is ugly. That said, sometime soon the first (c) wave lower should occur.

Also, the leading contracting diagonal for wave minute ⓘ should mean that the fifth wave of A, minute ((v)), circle-v, should not be a contracting diagonal by the Principle of Alternation.

If/when the (c) wave lower gets underway it certainly could be an impulse, but it could also be one of two types of diagonals (contracting or expanding), depending on how slow or fast the algorithms want to go. Still some larger down movement should occur to better signal the onset of the Minor B wave.

This is the second post since Friday. Have an excellent rest of the weekend,

TraderJoe