Here is the SPY 4-Hr chart (yes, with all those gaps) and the current idea for a local count. The A down, B up is for the upward diagonal scenario. This would be followed by a C down to Intermediate (4) of the larger monthly diagonal and overlap of wave (1), up. The 1 down, 2 up is for the Primary Ⓑ wave at the all-time high.
In this case, the A/1 down is the extended fifth wave scenario, and the minute Ⓥ wave is the vicious climax low we called out on the NYSE Adv/Dec line in real time.
Please note the alt: ⓨ notation should the move fail at this location.
Have an excellent rest of the day,
TraderJoe
Gold cfd update. Will it at least reach .382 retrace for potential (ii)?
ReplyDeletehttps://ibb.co/CpkW8KdV
You can, of course, be correct, with ~65% odds, but leave the other 35% for this one, as (iii) is still shorter than (i) in time at this location, too.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zyDWKmC2/
Nothing really can be 'confirmed' until above 3,351 and there is a wave greater than (ii). That's what helps solve the 'degree puzzle'.
TJ
Thanks TJ!
ReplyDeleteHave you posted something recently on the USD? I'm looking at it via the CAD and did we just complete 5 waves down and now B rebound? Thanks.
Did you try The Eight-Fold-Path Method on it? The link is below. My purpose here is not to do everyone's work or follow everyone's favorite pair. I couldn't keep up with it. But you know the saying, "teach a person to fish ...".
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2016/01/the-eight-fold-path.html
TJ
No I didn't. I've seen you mentioning "...not to do everyone's work..." before so I was just asking about your most recent post on it and I would have used it as starting point and you would have had nothing else to do. Thanks for the link, its in the center of my Desktop now.
Deletelink your result and I'll look at it. TJ.
DeleteThanks Trader Joe, for the nice SPY chart and analysis! 😊
ReplyDeleteI have continued to count the S&P 500 Index:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/gn1Z6Cpy/
Today, this market again failed to break out above the wall of resistance which was formed by the lows of 13 & 31 March, and the high of 9 April.
I have labeled today's high as Minuette wave (c) in a developing triangle, and the ongoing decline may be wave (d). This triangle is beginning to look something like a "bear wedge flag" pattern.
No one can say what will happen tomorrow, or what unprecedented hijinks will appear in the media. If this market can close above the noted resistance levels, then my top bearish alternate is that the market is in Minor wave 2, as TJ has shown in his chart, above.
Thanks TJ!
ReplyDeleteDo you have any thoughts on this short term bullish scenario?
A very strong C wave summer rally. It would give better length to (3) of the expanded diagonal you´ve mentioned a few times before.
I have two possible terminal points for A on the chart.
https://invst.ly/1a52i0
Best,
Erik
That would help the dow ed. Size of this decline could be the only issue. I have not measured.
DeletePossible, but less likely and not needed. Suggest 'actually' performing the measurements, like below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PLh4eNn6/
Your Minor wave B would be 'longer' in price than your Intermediate wave 2, the prior downward wave of higher degree in the same direction, and this would be a degree violation. The reason I say, "less likely" and not 'positively no' is that in an expanding diagonal sometimes one sees some difficult-to-explain measurements. But one shouldn't start with that premise.
TJ
SPX - 4516 would give us a 61.8 retracement of wave 3 and the overlap of wave 1, keeping the expanding diagonal alive from the 2020 low.
DeleteTj given that we hadn lower low in 3 wave (circle) would you label the move up today as c of flat b?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fftXti5P/
See chart above in the main post, and this one, below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/siGyioiO/
I'm not sure what part of "follow The Eight-Fold-Path-Method" I am not making clear. Stop trying to count cash; there are waves missing. Please help me and stop posting snippets of waves without counts. There are no overlaps of concern, so we are in (a) up, until / unless we trade below the ⓧ wave. I know that is a long time to wait. But see the parallel in the above chart.
TJ
ES 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen - now below the prior wave iv, and 'likely' into the (b) wave down in some fashion. Can be 'any three', including a triangle or a running triangle. TJ.
ReplyDeleteMany thanks for the timely update, TJ! 😊
DeleteIt looks like any downward impulse in the S&P 500 has now been invalidated, with the overlap of the 13 March lows.
ReplyDeleteNo. I published this one days ago. Please try to keep up .. lol. TIA.
Deletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2025/04/still-some-odds.html
TJ
With all respect TJ, I think that your circle-a wave in that chart has been exceeded.
DeleteI suppose that there is "technically" no limit to how high a B wave could go?
with all respect HG; there is a blue B well above circle wave-a. Right? I'm not a fortune-teller : just showing the more probable wave paths. TJ.
DeleteRightio, and thanks again for all your great work, which you share so freely! 🫶
DeleteSPY Cash (5-min): a count like this 'might' work; if the (b) wave is a flat or a running triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JnObjwLN/
TJ
back to dashed trend line .. after a 1.618 exterior retrace, and a 1.382 extension on the most recent blue-a.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/u9zGo4PF/
TJ
..overlap warning triggered.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rQOmBaeR/
TJ
ES ticked above the high in the after-hours, suggesting b-3 may better be counted as micro Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ, for now. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ