On the ES daily chart, today is the fourth consecutive close below the lower daily Bollinger Band, as shown. This drops the odds to about 2 - 4% of another close below the band. This does not mean that another close below the band is impossible. It just means the odds are dropping considerably.
The regular calculation of the daily slow stochastic is not embedded. It is over-sold. But both the %K and the %D lines are below the 20 level for the second day. So, the third day needs to be watched to see if the embedded status is obtained.
Intraday we made a new high over yesterday in a false breakout. Then we spent about 6 hours in a down trend that we can count as five-waves. So, we may need to spend several hours retracing that move if it is over.
From April 6th, because we can overall count an a,b,c up, we also need to monitor to see that this whippy behavior is not some form of triangle. For example, today it is curious that the down move was a 78.6% retrace on the up move. By itself, that may be of little significance and a Flat could form in the upward direction as part of a second wave ii of wave (v), or simple lower lows could form. But because this is overall a fourth wave, it needs to be monitored for triangle formations as well, and to observe if they invalidate or not. It may be way too early in the wave structure for triangles, so just observe to find the best count that follows the rules.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Thx TJ!
ReplyDeleteNow this looks like a b wave because the angle of decent is getting weaker.
https://imgur.com/qknghr6
To clarify, you are saying that:
ReplyDelete* we may still be in wave (iv) due to the whippy nature (rumor driven) of the trading in this wave; i.e., a-b-c could be the front part of a triangle (considering that c retraced only 78.6% of the (iv) rally & you counted 5 waves already).
Or:
* we may have seen wave i of wave (v) today and a flat correction could ensue for its wave ii (but wave i should have gone to a new low).
I don't have anything new to offer, except my ongoing Elliott Wave chart of the S&P 500 Index:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/CejJ5ZO9/
Perhaps to illustrate just how nicely this decline is channeling; and, to hail the _WORLD CLASS_ real-time analysis provided here daily by Trader Joe! 🥇
As well as to echo the feeling of total awe for the original genius of the work of Ralph Nelson Elliott, whose tools give us a rational method for making sense of this unprecedented moment in Stock Market history! 🎆
Also, one may notice the small blue box in the (above linked) chart, highlighting the very small space between Miniscule waves 3 and 4, where there is no wave overlap. The lovely confluence between this un-overlapped space and the 61.8% Fibonacci bracket of Subminuette wave i may forecast a target for the ultimate retracement of Subminuette wave ii. 😃
DeleteCorrection: Miniscule waves 1 and 4
DeleteAnd that target just got hit!
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/cTyaKcLd/
So much for the triangle theory. Unless it’s an expanding triangle. 😂
ReplyDeleteExpanding diagonal since the overnight ES high?
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: first note that for an x5 wave, the overnight did make it reach to the 1.618 expected. The alternate has to be the a,b,c in red.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/WeX4NstY/
IF so, we could spend some/much of the day in correction, and there is now a higher high.
TJ
Looking like some kind of triangle to me. Brilliant way to frustrate bull and bear alike with 5 whippy waves ahead of the new low. Lol!
ReplyDeleteYes seems like a small triangle to make abc leg (b of bigger triangle)
ReplyDeleteIntraday squiggles.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/usNawcw
This could wind up being the close inside the lower band. We'll see. TJ.
ReplyDeleteLol trump
ReplyDeleteBack to A-B-C for iv. LOL Should I buy broker stocks?
ReplyDeleteTime to add a moron risk premium when pricing equities.
ReplyDeletemonthly 18 ma area reached at 5400, Should be a C wave and a great short to the next gap at 4400.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: here's the ES intraday wave-counting-screen. There are three closes over the upper band, dropping the odds to 3 - 5% of the next close over the band (not impossible, just lower odds).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gWSHMlXj/
TJ
ES Daily - please, if this up wave should get too high; keep this longer-term scenario in mind.
ReplyDeletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2025/03/could-market-triangle-long-term.html
It's a 'price-manipulation' scenario where every wave is just built on news story after news story.
TJ
ES 30-min: outside reversal bar, and close inside the band resets the number of consecutive closes. TJ.
ReplyDeleteHere's the chart with the close inside the band. Nothing says anything is done yet.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/HbQ9xadd/
TJ
Thanks TJ. Spx cash gap pending at 5571 day low. April 3rd covered. Do EW give value to gaps?
DeleteManu .. people do. Technical analysts do. Algorithms definitely do. Isn't that all you need to know? EW doesn't care much one way or the other and only seeks to find the correct pattern that follows the rules. TJ.
DeleteLol! Now that is what I call a thrust!!
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: outside bar up negates outside bar down. New high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6dUPZh4y/
TJ
SPY 15-min: one might try another parallel like this. Nothing downward until the lower parallel trend line is busted, back-tested and fails.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0RmYeTpE/
TJ
P.S. note how closely that EMA-34 tracks that lower parallel. TJ.
DeleteMind the gaps! 😊
ReplyDeleteFYI, we are within a Puetz crash window now, post-eclipse, and full moon just ahead. A 1929-style Friday-Monday-Tuesday crash is very likely IF the low set on 7th is exceeded lower. Most epic crashes occur around eclipses, and rest assured those who have been announcing tariffs know exactly what they are doing with these markets.
ReplyDeleteWhat about the possibility that today's low was a truncated Minuette wave (v)?
ReplyDeleteAnd that the market is presently in a Minute retracement wave circle-iv ?
Oh, it may have been a truncation, but just of a ⓒ wave lower. See tomorrow's post which is already up. TJ.
DeleteWhat we had was a expanding leading diagonal for 1 then flat abc for 2 and today was start of 3
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ.