The benign CPI report spiked the ES futures in the pre-market, yet - by the time of the cash open - the SPX had made a new high, but the SPY did not. As for the futures, they did make a new daily higher high bar as below but look to be closing in the lower half/third.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Close Inside the Band & Embedded |
Note that after two consecutive closes below the lower band (odds about 4 - 6%), price travelled to the inside of the lower band and stayed there for the day. This close will likely reset the number of consecutive closes lower (this is being written with cash closed but the futures still trading).
Because of some of the discrepancies we noted, we started a possible contracting triangle count and are looking to see if we get a proper fourth and fifth wave down in one of two different ways that were outlined in the comments for the prior post. The second of the two counts doesn't follow a wave formation guideline really well, and also has a potential degree violation in it. So, we prefer the version that starts with the contracting diagonal, but they both have wound up in the same place. Let's see how it goes over the next couple of days.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
TJ, referencing:
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-screenshots.investing.com/tvc_44cda9c6e5241eec623d8e0a674919bb.png
It looks like you gave the upper channel line short shrift.
I don't think circle 3 is complete yet. Just my opinion.
DeleteThe chart below shows that the wave four guideline has been met. The guidelines is +10% to -40% of max for third wave. The max was -124, and so all that wave four had to do was -12. It got to -9, so, the guideline is met.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/19hwc4
And, if you 'want' to get bearish in this count IFF three is longer than one, then five can be 'any' length (5 = 1, 5 = 0.618 net (1 to 3), 5 = 3, etc., etc.). I try not to have opinions that aren't backed by something.
TJ
Lack of a proper channel, and no 4th wave signature on the AO, are 'something'.
Delete?? I just showed the fourth wave AO signature. And I don't know the triangle or upward movement is done. Maybe it will hit the channel later in time. I don't 'know', I'm just following the guidelines of the method. TJ.
DeleteGot it, thnx.
DeleteTJ, I know that we have had some large b waves but would concur that a b wave from late 2022 with around a 200% extension is not real likely?
ReplyDelete1. Was Covid-19 real likely? 2. Was unprecedented FED easing really likely? 3. Were actual hand-outs from the Federal government to every person really likely? As I said in that post diagonals 'can not' be ruled out at this time. I can only count locally with an eye on bigger pictures. I can only note that the Dow is not playing along yet with the other indexes and wonder why. Maybe it will get in gear, maybe not. Yet, we 'know' that wave was not built on economic growth. That is often the signature of a large degree B wave. Time will tell, and I have to hold two ideas in my little head at once. 😵💫 TJ
DeleteTH X! I have multiple counts possible and why the percantage would argue against, it is true that if checks start flying, one would have to increase the b wave odds.
DeleteI once read that sanity is being able to hold various diametrically opposing views in ones head and still be able to function.
Many years ago I searched for that answer......ending up calling BP at EWI....1.382 was what I got. Its what I use.
DeleteSPY 5-min: this is all I have so far. Obviously, a triangle would invalidate below the low, but we are not near there yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/k5DHbRWy/
TJ
SPY 5-min: triangle likely in force. Now invalidation is to the upside.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2KSLinHt/
TJ
SPY opening gap now filled. TJ.
Deletejust fyi - narrowing triangle signature on EWO, and each wave crosses the EMA-34.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kFIx1dt4/
Another pop in 'e' possible provided, the high is not exceeded.
TJ
Just working on the counting.
ReplyDelete1 would be an Xi wave in the familiar pie shape that they like to do.
v of three needs to me a little move down out of triangle to keep iii from not being the shortest and maybe get 3 to 1.618 of 1.
https://imgur.com/fljKUQ4
iii maybe should be moved over to the right at the next low.
Delete/CL flat bottom barrier triangle is still working.
ReplyDelete5th wave starting? August 13th gap on SPX cash @ 5355 seems like a fair target.
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: looks like triangle now breaking lower into 5th wave. Needs a new overall low, though.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RbOrnxYS/
TJ
Divergent VIX also hinting a likely fifth down.
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min; there's the new low. I'd put a 'wave-counting-stop' above the 'e' wave. Above there might indicate we are in a different wave-set, up.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yUDyAG5I/
TJ
All indexes at new lows except the risk on crowd of QQQ, SOXX, Bitcoin. VIX and Trannies also non-confirming (as of now.)
ReplyDeleteSpx cash has an expanding diagonal look. With 5th wave starting now to downside. Let's see
ReplyDeleteIs there a tool for quickly identifying open gaps on ES and other indices?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qpxn8Qlf/
ReplyDeleteWidth of the triangle is 5463ish ES for v of 3.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/TCjgha8
Here is just the wave iii with 135 candles.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/1xqq6so
Not ideal, but this may be the first wave of a new trend and they like to fight the old one.
Looks good
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ