With today's higher all-time-high, the NASDAQ 100 futures have proved its case for three overlapping zigzags up, which can be counted as a diagonal, or simply as the three zigzags. The 2-Day chart is below.
We first showed this chart back on May 18th (chart at this LINK). The chart predicted a higher high and that has occurred. Yes, it can go further, but should not become longer in price than wave (3) or else the formation is not a diagonal (it could do so and remain three simple zigzags however.) This is one of the few markets where the lengths of the waves and overlaps make the diagonal count 'legal' from an Elliott Wave perspective.
The wave doesn't look much like a traditional diagonal, because the first B wave is a very shallow retrace. But, at this point, it is what it is.
The DOW today, made lower daily lows and did not go over its all-time-high as of the close. It may well be in a triangle. The S&P 500 may be caught somewhere in between. Its count right now is still up in the air. Nothing in the S&P500 has yet ruled out the (b) wave higher.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Nice!! Now for that final text-book throw-over and it's gonna be a beautiful thing..!
ReplyDeletehttps://schrts.co/CzwecaJa
ReplyDeleteThis doesn’t usually end well diverging this much.
https://schrts.co/twaDrktu
DeleteQ’s divergence
Yet A/D is not showing any divergence.
DeleteWhile rare, we have seen a market top absent NYAD divergence...
DeleteHow abt a running flat for 4th and now 5th on. I know ao is a bit odd with this count.
ReplyDeleteUpdate on the coin of bit.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/BZ3KH6W
A very small minority is calling it a large head and shoulders on the daily chart. I agree with them. Monthly rsi is hinting at a substantial fall for the cryptos
DeleteNice chart ET, must be meme stocks driving market higher.
ReplyDeleteHere is percent of stocks above 50 day. Some use 75% as over bought and 25% as over sold. Market turned first of the year.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/r/rFyXISgk.png
Perhaps the Qs can decide things for us. Thanks for the update!
ReplyDeleteQs (dly) from another perspective -
https://i.postimg.cc/3rcXXSLg/QQQ.png
Yeh...sure looks like the other indices have been marking time waiting for NDX. If tech falls hard, they all likely will...
DeleteHow do I delete a post of my own?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Delete button should be next to the reply under your comment.
DeleteI just have a Reply, no Delete :o( I'll do some investigation.
DeleteThanks!
Found the problem. Thanks BB!
DeleteDr. Copper has broken the Mar20 trendline with gusto. How timely...
ReplyDeleteBad numbers. Last month showed a lot of deceleration and now I see reversal. This is probably what the markets have been predicting. All is not well, prices are going up and sales are going down. And I never figured out how having 400K newly laid off people in a supposedly growing economy was good.
ReplyDeleteTUESDAY, JUNE 15
8:30 am Retail sales May -1.3% -0.6% 0.9%
8:30 am Retail sales excluding autos May -0.7% 0.5% 0.0%
8:30 am Producer price index May 0.8% 0.5% 0.6%
8:30 am Empire state manuf index June 17.4 22.9 24.3
Despite the State supposedly fully opening up last Friday, 39% of Illinois businessess remain closed, and many of them will probably never re-open.
DeleteMy short term trading system triggered a short for TQQQ this morning. This is likely a correction beginning that might last the day or into tomorrow. I equate a trigger of this with a wave 1 or wave A down which is usually followed by a 2 or B up that may or may not break the high. If it does break the high it could be a larger fifth wave up that would be terminal or we would be in a smaller degree expanded flat.
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. Here is the ES 30-min intraday wave-counting screen, with updated daily pivot points (classic calculation) and local fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/v56cy
Price is now down to the daily pivot point after having broken the first fractal back. Price STILL HAS a daily positive bias. The intraday bias is down, fighting the daily bias.
While it is possible to count a completed up wave, there is no confirmation of that until yesterday's low is exceeded lower, and a retrace wave holds under the high.
TJ
This is not a recommendation to trade anything. I'm just saying that the move lower this morning was strong enough that we can probably expect weakness in the larger uptrend at the minimum.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min; now down to S1 daily pivot. Still "looks like" three-waves-down. Could turn into more.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/v57uy
TJ
ES 5-min: from a wave-counting perspective, there is now more than a 1.618 wave down, and a breach of the lower channel line. We have seen this before in this market. The two counts a/i, b/ii, and c/iii are equivalent until they are not.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/v57zb
That means to impulse, lower, the wave must survive a "fourth-wave" test that does not upwardly overlap, and make a fifth wave lower.
TJ
..and one cautionary note: IFF the ES is in a triangle; some really goofy waves like 2.618 or 4.326 waves ARE possible, if the triangle reinforces it's character. I am currently thinking something like that might happen AFTER the first verified impulse (like as an 'a' wave down); but triangles can be tricky.
DeleteTJ
ES 5-min; now with 125 candles on the chart, well within the recommended 120 - 160 for The Eight-Fold-Path Method, the EWO is 'potentially' making the fourth wave signature on the other side of the zero line.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/v59cd
TJ
SPY (15min) -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/3N2ptRCk/spy15.png
Held midline test. Back above 60 level. [Possible] H&S in the making. Monitoring
DeleteES 30-min: back to intraday 18-period. That's about the limit for a fourth wave. Beyond there and the up wave is more than 62% of c/iii.
ReplyDeleteTJ
..there are two new down (red) fractals at the lows, as well. It's really now kind of up to the closing candles.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/v5a2q
TJ
https://www.tradingview.com/x/GDzihyX0/
ReplyDeleteTQQQ hasn't made it yet to 1.618 for a C or 3rd wave. Given the markets habit of one general direction for most days I would allow things play out for more downside. The waves aren't "flowing" very well so far
(fyi only) ... the Dow made another lower low day today.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/c410Qmj5/
ReplyDeleteDiagonal forming in TQQQ, end of a correction or slow drop to and acceleration tomorrow?
(fyi only) .. SPY cash looks markedly different today than futures.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/WGHdHLyZ/
TJ
SPY (15min) - e.o.d. -
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/tCdSk4mL/spy15.png