Today's down wave at the end of the day was quite strong. We were on the look-out for wave completion or a fourth wave with a final fifth wave to follow. It appears to be the former.
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| ES Futures - 8 Hr - Possible Completion of (Y) |
The time frame for this wave is a longer and more difficult one at 8-Hr, but it is what it is. It is not yet for certain that the up wave is over. Wave minute ((v)) could subdivide. In other words, today's drop could only be wave (ii) of minute ((v)). But, it can not do so if price drops below the 4,120 level that we noted yesterday. IF the wave has completed, it has finished the Intermediate (Y) label, upwards.
Keep in mind that another alternate can be that since the wave hasn't contacted the lower boundary, yet, it could be a much larger in time wave minute ((iv)). As of this point, I can see nothing that absolutely rules that out.
So, we possibly have a completed wave count, but we do not have confirmation. Better confirmation would come from trading well below the lower parallel, then back-testing it and failing. That could be a ways off yet.
This chart was added after the beginning of the evening session. I think if you clear away some of the clutter, the proportions are looking pretty good, and the wedge shape remains in tact.
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| ES Futures - 2 Day - Close Only Wedge |
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
ET,
ReplyDeleteMy sector rotation model turned negative today as futures made a new high and cash did not. Now the way Gilorgos Siligardos explains his indicator is "After a long lasting bullish trend the SRMind becomes negative and stays that way as the market loses upward momentum"
https://flic.kr/p/2kXSTki
Last time I find negative SRMind at the highs was 2018, at the peak it turned negative. This indicator is part of think or swim software.
ES (dly) - observations
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Bonds,SPX and CBR index.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/iL6VK2rr/
Thanks TJ.
ReplyDelete1)What make you change your opion from iv to completed v from the 2nd last comment on previous post ? Crossing 4180? Timeperiod ? Just trying to understand.
2) Say it drops below 4120 and int. Y is done. Till what level the correction can go upto 4080? Can we have a longer term chart.
..see below, and newly added 2nd chart, above.
DeleteSo in around 4050-4080?
DeleteA new chart was added to the post after the beginning of the evening session.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Weekly, looking ahead with 1 big assumption - (just for reference)
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4hr, current look -
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👍thanks GW. & TJ.
Delete200ma reached, and April/May lows exceeded.
DeleteLooking for VIX to target 29 to 30. VXN 35.
DeleteGood analysis ET, now these 5 waves down can be a bear trap if is C that completes the wave ((IV)).
ReplyDeleteYes, still possible. Will see tonight if there is a way to rule it out, but there may not be yet.
DeleteTJ
Nasdaq futures and cash overlapped today. That rules out a wave C of ((IV)) in that market.
Delete5min SPY -
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Working on possible inverted H&S. Rough target at this time is around the .618 retrace should it play out.
DeleteAfter moving back into the OR (from below), now retesting lower boundary and RSI 40 level.
DeleteSo, what has to happen to definitively say whether Y has completed or not?
ReplyDeleteThanks
He said above: "Better confirmation would come from trading well below the lower parallel, then back-testing it and failing. That could be a ways off yet."
DeleteSee 6Q comment above. ET's old count of C wave is still an option.
DeleteYes, see my comment above to 6Q.
DeleteTJ
An aside - AAPL (wkly), thoughts on comparative relative strength [if interested] -
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MSFT RS was even better than AAPL during the pandemic, but its RS diverged (negatively) in Aug '20, and has gone down since (under performed).
DeleteThanks for the insights, GW
ReplyDelete👍
Delete5min SPY (final) -
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There is a new post started for the next day.
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