The Wedge Keeps Wedging

Here is the ES futures daily. Again, for degree reasons, it is hard to count differently. Prices remain in the wedge formation.

ES Futures - Daily Close Only - Still in a Wedge

This is truly a difficult wave-counting structure - which is just what the FED wants - as  the waves are so compressed, and then they expand. Today we were counting the potential short term contracting diagonal, but it's maximum (provided in the comments in the last post) was exceeded higher. As we explained in the comments, that meant that the diagonal we showed yesterday was a valid diagonal, but it was Leading, as a first wave, and today was likely a third wave. A fourth and fifth wave Sunday-Tuesday might cap this portion of the wave.

Based on the daily put-call ratio the market is very, very over-bought at this point. But the larger longer term count options remain the same (as a reminder, see this LINK).

There are possible alternates to this count, but the lower trend line of the wedge would have to be broken substantially, first, for them to be considered. Patience, calm and flexibility remain essential in this environment. 

P.S. Here is the local count. I had to use the ES 45-minute time frame to fit the waves on the chart. 

ES Futures - 45 min - Up Count

The above chart is still attempting to count with the trend upwards - based largely on MACD - until that is no longer possible following the pretty clear diagonal wave i. There is still a divergence on the MACD, including on the 4-Hr chart. The invalidation level is shown. The alternate is also shown, which basically indicates that if you move black ii to the right, where the second micro ((2)) is, then there are enough waves to call a top at Friday's high.

Have a good start to the evening and to the weekend.

This chart was added after the futures open. It is the four-hour chart of the ES futures. With the higher high tonight it is 'possible' to count the five waves up in black as per the primary count.

That means it is possible to see a fourth and fifth wave up to the Minor C wave in this index provided that overlap of the minute ((i)) wave does not occur first. The Minor B wave triangle would indicate 'last five-wave sequence up dead-ahead'. 

From a degree labeling standpoint, it seems necessary to count the wave this way otherwise one of the sub-waves upward of wave C would be 'longer in time' than all of wave A, which would likely otherwise result in a degree labeling error.

TraderJoe