Thursday, August 9, 2018

Backing and Filling Continues

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility  
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed lower; NDX, DJUtil higher
SPX Candle: Higher High, Lower Low, Lower Close -  Outside Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

Again with relatively narrow price range movement, the stock market, as measured by the S&P500 Index, had an outside day lower, but did not even fill it's closest near-by gap yet. Here is the daily chart of the S&P500 Cash Index for reference.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Outside Day

The Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) still has green histogram bars and is still rising. Price momentum remains puckish, and the small nature of the pull-pack thus far is hard to argue with. This appears to still be a sub-wave within the minuet wave v of minute wave (iii).

On a slightly different note, in previous post we stated that we might begin to look for a bottom in the EUR/USD. We now show the daily chart of it's near-inverse: the daily US Dollar Index futures, which may be nearing or at a top.

DX - US Dollar Index Futures - Daily

For the first time, it is possible to count a completed five-wave sequence upward in this index, too. If so, it would be to an a contracting ending diagonal at this point in time, occurring on a divergence with the Elliott Wave Oscillator. Remember, diagonals are structures which must prove themselves, so we would want to see the typical post-pattern behavior that occurs after a diagonal to confirm it, otherwise, an extension of minuet wave (iii), as shown, or even an extension of minute ((iv)), not shown, as a larger triangle is possible.

Still, it is possible to count a completed wave sequence and we wanted to bring it to your attention. 

Have a very good start to your evening.

No comments:

Post a Comment