|SP500 Daily Chart|
The first thing I noticed was that all the daily candles after November are above the EMA-34 until the candles in March of this year. Using The Eight Fold Path Method, that has always tended to indicate "only one wave up". And so, I started to figure, "how could that be?" More on that later, but you can see some wave labeling that resulted from that thought.
The second thing I noticed was that this March pull-back to the EMA-34, "looks like" the largest pull back we have had, so far. And I asked, "how can that be? why now?". And, "just where are those deep second wave pull-backs?"
Thirdly, this dip resulted in the first traversing of the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) below the zero line.
The fourth thing I wondered about was, "If the wave to the March 1 high is really a third wave, then why is it on a divergence of the EWO? The very hallmark of a third wave is a higher EWO.
And Fibonacci Fifth, none of us really had problems counting "five waves" to the January high, But that's where all the trouble began. So, then I began to wonder whether or not there was a Fibonacci relationship between the January, 2017 wave up, and the March, 2017 wave up. And if you look at the numbers in blue, you can see in the above daily chart that (c) = 0.618 x (a) almost to the point!
All of this seemed too amazing to pass up, so building this chart from the "bottom up" has actually brought me back to the much larger potential diagonal count I published in my prior YouTube video. I showed the count using the Dow, and that count remains the same. Now, let's update it on the S&P500 Index, below, using the three-day time frame.
|SP500 3-Day Chart Primary 5 Ending Diagonal|
First, it should be clear from the wave labeling, I am not now expecting the Primary 5 wave to follow The Eight Fold Path Method. So far, it hasn't.
To be brief, it looks to me like we have finished minute ((i)) and minute ((ii)) of the Minor C wave of Intermediate (1), of Primary 5. Marginal new highs should finish minute ((iii)), and minute ((v)) perhaps in April. This can agree with a target of 21,374 on the Dow. But furthermore, explaining the up wave as "all of minute ((i))", agrees with the observation from the daily chart where the EMA-34 tends to indicate "one wave up". Maybe the mystery is solved!
Then an Intermediate (2) wave of five Intermediate waves up to Primary 5 would likely at least come down to the lower trend channel boundary and / or break it, before an up trend resumes. This means the topping process can still be grinding and labored, but it would provide the time needed to develop the technical divergences which are now only just starting to show up.
If Thursday's "Five Waves Up" wave was indeed an "A" wave, it may well be minuet (a) of the minute ((iii)) up wave, and the downward wave is minuet (b). I think the market may be doing it's darnedest to fool the majority of Elliott Wave counters.
Anyway, that is what a review of the daily chart indicates. It is not a change in perspective from the weekend video. It is an elaboration on it for the S&P500 index.
Cheers! And Have a Great Weekend.