Friday, April 21, 2017

Count Continues

In a rare weekend treat, here is the intraday SP500 5-minute chart in near real time as posted in the live chat room, this post is about 1:30 PM today. Yesterday, I posted that there may have been a fifth wave truncation in the c wave of (iv), on yesterday's eight hour ES chart, and the chart below shows what this looks like. Five tiny waves up off of the 5-minute channel that fail to make a new high as a wave ((5)) still within the upward channel.

SP500 5-Minute Chart with Truncation and Expanding Diagonal Downward

One of the reasons I called for the truncation, is we got the fourth wave, ((4)) within 78 candles (see the first circle on the Elliott Wave Oscillator). That does not follow The Eight Fold Path Method as fourth waves should typically occur within 120 - 160 candles in true impulses (not impulses which are part of corrections). Also, you will note that wave ((ii)) is not along the lower channel boundary which is another tell-tale sign.

Then, this morning, I started counting yet another slow, expanding diagonal downward that is perfect in every detail, with wave 5 longer than wave 3, wave 3 longer than wave 1, wave 4 longer than wave 2 (in both price & time!), and wave 4 overlapping wave 1, upward. This diagonal is likely a larger wave (1), downward. While I had no desire to start counting yet another potential diagonal down, the failure of the down wave to also follow The Eight Fold Path Method forced this count. Good thing!

The tiny diagonal lower has already proved itself, and a second wave upward might occur for the rest of the afternoon, or until the weekend. Such a second wave upward should not exceed the truncated fifth wave ((5)), above.

When this morning's downward diagonal was proven, it was also noted that wave ((1)) upward, was also overlapped in the downward direction, as shown, preventing any misunderstanding with a larger fourth wave.

It looks like the larger ES 8-hr diagonal is being set-up to complete properly, perhaps next week.

Have a great rest of the day!
TraderJoe


3 comments:

  1. Thanks Joe,
    I started to post this yesterday and then pulled it. What do you make of the fact that the RUT didn't truncate and is now a point and change from making a new high in the run off of Monday's low? That run by the way does seem to conform to the Eight-Fold path Methodology just finishing the 4th wave and beginning 5.

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    Replies
    1. 15 minutes later. The 5th may have just truncated perhaps just a little behind the rest of the indexes. LOL

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  2. TJ, I'm surprised you haven't considered a wave 4 triangle where wave d is underway. I'm not favoring the count unless 2365-2370 is hit Monday to completed d. It certainly is an option

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