Friday, April 7, 2017

Count Continues

Lots of hours have gone by since Wednesday's post. Nothing has changed as 2375 (ES Futures) has not been exceeded to the upside. Today was the second day without it being exceeded - at least by the 4:15 pm settle. So, Ira Epstein might say, "a trap for the bears was not sprung by the outside reversal day down" that we pointed out in Wednesday's post.

ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures (4 hr ) - Potential Downward Diagonal

There has been lots of whippy action, but so far, resistance at 2360-65 has been containing prices on the upside. The daily futures have lower lows, but no higher highs, yet, and prices closed below the 18-day SMA (line in the sand) and so therefore have a negative bias. Clearly, this downside wave has not been following The Eight Fold Path Methodology for Counting an Impulse, as there are already 160 candles on this chart. And therefore, the downside move is likely not an impulse downward, hence the potential diagonal designation.

Again, there can be no discussion of upward alternates until the "key price marker" at 2375 is exceeded higher. That does not mean there aren't upward alternates. That just means there is no evidence for them unless or until that occurs.

Have a great start to your weekend.


  1. Joe,
    Thanks again for your efforts. Your analysis is always right on the mark. One thing I seem to have difficulty with sometimes is context. I was with you as of the zero based budgeting post where we were thinking we had completed minute 1 and 2 of minor C up. I've been lost since you presented the downward count. In that count, what is the labeling for your 0 point at the early March high?

    1. From the weekend video, wave minor C of Intermediate (1), up, is 0.

  2. Joe, Thanks for the wonderful chart. It seems like your v looks too shallow. Isn't it necessary for v>iii>i for the expanded diagonal?

  3. Hi TJ,
    Have you ever looked into Elliott Wave Trader with Avi Gilbert? He was like you and predicted wave 5 as well. His group uses "pinball" Fibonacci.

  4. Hello Joe

    Can I ask what your long term count is?


    1. It was in the last weekend video, and is answered also in the above comment from PT.