|ES E-Mini S&P 500 Futures - 4 HR|
The half-hourly S&P500 cash index chart looks like "Swiss cheese" at the moment, with numerous gaps (shown in red) both above and below the market.
|S&P500 Cash Index - 30 Minutes - Numerous Gaps|
The cash index could not close it's opening gap today, and so a series of lower highs remains clear, but what is still needed is lower lows.
It's a time to remain flexible and patient to see whether the downward count resolves properly with a low below ES 2504 (futures) or an upward count begins. Another downward gap tomorrow should be taken as a sign the downward count may indeed resolve properly, as today can be counted as ((1)) down, as the first SP500 30-min candle downward, with a flat ((2)) upward. Invalidation of that downward impulse count would be over the 2350 level on the cash S&P. The diagonal would have to be examined in real time.
Other evidence that may be pointing in the downward direction is that the DJIA has greater than a 90% retrace on it's March 27th down wave. That would be very atypical of a triangle retrace - which is usually about 78.6% or less. So, at this time the down count still has priority. Is it possible this whole last wave will resolve as a larger diagonal lower? Yes, it is. But, an impulse lower is still quite possible too. Let's see how it goes.
Have a great evening.