Here is the continuation of our downward count, and the predictions that it makes.
|ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 4 Hour - Potential Diagonal Downward|
So, first, for this diagonal to complete properly, it should make a new low below 2304 in the futures. The current geopolitical environment has started that process, with several lower low and lower high days since we first published this count in the post titled, "Outside Reversal Day Down" back on April 5th. However, wild gyrations within the diagonal are still possible.
The simplest way for the diagonal to complete is now for each of the minute waves ((i)) through ((iv)) are "three wave" sequences. That could mean that April, 6th through April 10th is an ((A)) wave down and ((B)) wave up, as a flat wave, and the apparent expanding shape we are in now would be ((C)) of minute ((v)) to finish the overall diagonal. The more difficult way is if April 6th through April 10th is only wave (i) and (ii) of an over-all five wave sequence lower. Right now, the former scenario is favored.
Again, similar to the count on the Russell 2000, published previously, and repeated below, and the Dow count from the weekend video on YouTube, we think the potential diagonal downward is because, Intermediate wave (1) upward finished, and we are just starting Intermediate (2) lower, of the Primary 5th wave, overall.
|Russell 2000 Cash Index - Likely in Intermediate (2) Lower|
And, if the C wave was an ending contracting diagonal, as we called in real time in the chat room, then Intermediate (2) should trade lower than that B wave low, which started the diagonal.
Time will tell. But, the expectations are clear, and each of the waves currently fits properly down to the five-minute level on both the cash S&P500 Index and the futures.
From an invalidation standpoint, we drop that level to above 2365, basis the ES futures, which is now a few ticks above the high of the current ((B)) wave on April 10th.
Have a very good weekend. Let's hope it's enjoyable for all!