Thursday, March 2, 2017

How the S&P 500 Meshes with the Dow at this Point

Here is the count of waves minuet (i), (ii), and (iii), so far in the S&P500 from the 2257 level. This is the same count as on the Dow chart provided yesterday and in the weekend video. These waves are inside of minute ((v)) of Minor C, upward.

SP500 2-Hr Chart

Since minuet (ii) is pretty clearly a deep, sharp wave, then minuet (iv) can be a flat or triangle. That means a new high can still be possible in this wave set, but does not have to occur. I would expect minuet (iv) to attack the lower channel boundary and for the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) to return to near the zero line (+10% to -40% of the peak).

In this two-hourly chart, I've included the standard 14-period RSI so you can see how the peaks line up so far - when you have the right number of candles on the chart. This chart has just about 110 candles, and should have 120 candles as minuet wave (iv) becomes better defined. So far, the overall alternation in the wave has been holding up well.

Also importantly, it shows the b wave of the ivth wave triangle was, in fact, a b wave, and not countable by the The Eight Fold Path procedure. The triangle should indicate the "last wave up" within wave (iii) follows it, and so far, it seems too. Within wave (iv) a 38.2 - 50% retracement of wave (iii), only, could be expected.

Hope this helps, and have a good night.
TraderJoe

11 comments:

  1. Thanks, this is quite helpful. For minor 3 of C ending at December high, I am finding it really difficult to come up with a reasonable count. Will really appreciate similar chart for that or some tips on where to label (v).

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    1. Since the video posted this weekend I am not counting any minor 3 of C at the high in December. The correct count since the Feb 2016 low was posted yesterday using the Dow chart, again, as copied over from the video. The S&P 500 currently now fits that same count. Let me know where the confusion is.

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    2. On a daily chart Minor 3 looks like a 3 wave move unless you go to hourly and are happy with ting 25 point minuet (v).

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  2. Joe, when you wrote "That means a new high can still be possible in this wave set, but does not have to occur." do you mean that the (v) can be a failed five or a double top with (iii), or that the count is other and the (iii) could be (v).

    Today's down waves looks to me more corrective than impulsive. So I think your count is correct.

    Thank you ! ;)

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    1. Hi 6Q. No, sorry for the difficult phrasing. I mean that to provide alternation for wave ((ii)), which does not have a higher 'b' wave than ((i)), wave four can be a triangle, or it can be a flat with a 'b' wave that is at least 90% the height of the 'a' wave, or up to 138.2% the height of the 'a' wave. Obviously at up to 138.2% it would make a new high. But this would be the high of wave ((iv)), not the high of ((v)), ultimately.

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    2. I understand now. The phrase is correct, the mistake of interpretation is mine. Thank you !

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  3. Joe, I would like to offer another alternate to consider from the Feb 2016 low in SPX. Rather than an ABC, it's a WXY. W is the same as your A. X is the running correction to the November low, and from the November low, we have completed wave Y, which subdivides as follows: A=2278 on 12/13. B was a running contracting triangle that ended at 2272 on 2/02. C completed yesterday. 2398 is 1.618 of A (2084-2278) W and Y essentially equal each other.

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    1. I don't see the point. What would it go with?

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    2. It would be wave B of an expanded flat.

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    3. isn't there a 1.38 x A limit on B ?

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