Monday, March 6, 2017

Gaps Above and Gaps Below

The market gapped lower at the outset, and after bottoming, continued upward in five clear waves. In doing so, the market has pushed the S&P500 2-Hourly chart out to 118 candles, quite close to that magic 120 candles - and we would expect to see that tomorrow. Here is the continuation of that chart.

SP500 2-Hours

In live chat room, we were able to count a clear three-waves down, and we saw that the lower trend line was not attacked yet by wave minuet (iv) as we would eventually expect it to be. Therefore, it is most likely that this is the a:3 wave of a minuet (iv) flat, or of a minuet (iv) triangle. And the impulse up this afternoon may have been the start of a sojourn back towards the highs for a b:3 wave in some form. Since, the lower trend channel line was not touched yet, either prices need to continue down in a further sub-division of the .c wave, down, tomorrow, which seems less likely because there has already been one impulse up from the lows, or the correction will continue as a FLAT or triangle wave - either of which can attack the channel in their own ways eventually.

It is worth seeing that today the $NYAD (NYSE Advance/Decline Line) finally broke it's short term upward trend, with a ratio of approximately 1 : 2. But, rather than publish that here, you can view this for yourself using a free chart service like stockcharts-dot-com and entering in the symbol $NYAD, and select "cumulative" from the drop-down list for the style of candle.

Please note that in Friday's post (Sixteen Candles), the likely target values of the Elliott Wave Oscillator were provided as +3 to -12, by the time wave minuet (iv) is wrapped up. Today's value is +3.11, and is not too shabby. The EWO can certainly can travel lower if it wants, but from our perspective has fulfilled it's job in this wave. It's maximum target was met.

Kindly remember that for a FLAT wave, the b:3 wave upward must make a target of at least 90% of a:3 wave whereas for a triangle, one might expect only a 78.6% upward wave.

It's worth noting that one of the reasons we think this is only a corrective wave is that the market put in new gaps above the market - which it can then try to fill.

So let's see how wave minuet (iv) progresses. Remember, these fourth waves can be a royal pain. They are destined to try to burn off the long price rise of minuet (iii) by taking a lot of time and moving prices sideways.

So, at this point, it's good to be patient and flexible. Have a great evening!
TraderJoe




4 comments:

  1. Joe,
    While I can agree with the posted count above I wanted to point out that it looks like a different count on the RUT. It looks more like 5 down and 3 up. The RUT has been much weaker then the other indices post Trump speech. I was just wondering if there is any significance to this because in trading the RUT I would be looking for another impulse down.

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    1. Hi PT. We have been working out the count of the RUT in the live chat room. It is very interesting.

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  2. Joe, many thanks for the impeccable analysis. Do you follow the NQ or NASDAQ 100 in your chat room. My wave counts show it's ahead of the other 2 US indexes and may be ready to top. Just wanted your input on this. Thanks for all the hard work

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    1. Welcome. In the NQ, whether as part of C wave or part of an impulse, I don't see any sufficient fourth waves yet. Thus, the case for a top is yours to be made.

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