Friday, March 10, 2017

Fuss and Muss

There sure was a lot of fuss for a final 8 points in cash and 6 points in futures. Luckily, it was enough to save our primary count because it took the Elliott Wave Oscillator away from that -12 level we wrote about yesterday, ending with a final value around -6, up from -10.

Intraday, the market went up to a high of 2377 before making a quite precise 61.8% retracement lower to 2363, and then ending at 2373. Here is the S&P500 2-Hourly Chart again.

SP500 2-Hr Chart

As best I can tell at the moment, the up movement was so quick today as to likely be an ((A)) wave up. It certainly didn't have that 20-to-30 point zip one might expect from some employment reports. From a wave labeling perspective, wave (iv) now clearly took more time than wave (ii), and has more complexity to it, so that seems to be all that is required of wave (iv). And, I would like to see a new high above ((A)) before labeling the first impulse of a ((C)) wave which might be part of an ending diagonal.

You can chose to differ, and call today i, up, and ii, down of five (v). That's fine. I'll be watching for that one too. The key point is that if a new local high is made above 2377 then, a 1.618 extension is expected in either case.

At this time, while a triangle is still a plausible count, I think it has slightly less priority than an ending diagonal or a straight impulse higher because the time relationship of wave (iv) to wave (ii) noted above was at least minimally satisfied, and because of the Federal Reserve Meeting on Wednesday, 15 March.

Speaking of predictability, on the March 3 post (Sixteen Candles), we showed you this chart of a likely 138.2% b:3 wave in the U.S. Dollar Index, and said that a likely target was back below the a:3 wave in a flat.

US Dollar Index Futures (March, 2017)

Today, we are happy to note that there appears to have been a first wave down, i, and a second wave up, ii, that held below the prior high and today made a new low below the low of wave i.

If the downward wave extends as it should, we are showing you where the 1.618 extension would be. But, so far, so good.

And good enough to hope you have a good start to your weekend!

1 comment:

  1. Thanks again Joe! Greatly appreciate your postings.