Monday, March 27, 2017

Ending or Leading ?

With this morning's new lower daily low in the Russell 2000 Index, there are a clear "five waves down" in the shape of an hourly diagonal, with good form, as shown in the chart, below.

Russell 2000 Index Hourly - Diagonal

Now the question becomes is this diagonal a Leading Diagonal? Or is it an Ending Diagonal? If it is an Ending Diagonal it would be a "C" wave of a fourth wave in the Russell.

If it is a Leading Diagonal, it would be A or 1, of a larger downward wave.

Strictly from the chart at this time, it is impossible to tell which it is. And while there is no reason to go screaming from the roof tops at this time (or ever, actually), it is clear today in the S&P500 was a lower-low, and lower-high day. There is no clear turn around in the S&P. And until there is, a fifth wave count will not be started.

Now is a time for me to evaluate how to avoid getting caught on The Slope Of Hope. The S&P500 breached the 2335 level this morning, and the only way now to continue to form a fourth wave from this location is to form a triangle to equalize the net travel between this as a wave four, and the prior wave two shown in the Wednesday 22 March post. The Slope of Hope in this case means waiting and waiting for a fourth wave that just doesn't develop.

On the S&P500 4-hr cash chart, the Elliott Wave Oscillator has now traveled lower than The Eight Fold Path guidelines, and this is a significant warning signal.

There remains nothing wrong with this two-day Dow chart & count that was shown in my weekend video.

DJIA - 2 Day - Three Waves Up to Intermediate (1)

We're not going to know for sure for a while yet, but if the downward wave gets much longer, then it becomes more and more difficult to give credence to a fourth wave.

For this reason, I will remain patient and flexible until there is a bit more clarity, but I am not looking for support levels in the market. Rather, I am looking for the market to clarify the count.

Cheers and enjoy the evening.


  1. TJ, is that 5th wave truncated in the R2K? Aren't truncations usually a sign of strength not weakness?

    1. No truncation. Made a lower low.

    2. Joe, in your labeling of R2K , why can't wave 2 to 3 be a wave 1 down of a larger 5 wave structure(either part of a c wave, or wave 1 of a 3rd wave, with 3 to 4 now be a wave 2 of this sequence or part of a flat with your wave 5 being the b wave of the flat. I realize that the structure isn't complete yet but is the above a possible labeling? I know I should probably stick to medicine but I do follow you and have a true interest. Thanks Sam

    3. Hi Samuel - Oh, it 'could' be a flat but 'usually' flats are fourth waves, and the wave 1 down has already been overlapped upward. In other words you are supposing many more waves than are actually on the chart. If it turns out that way, I would rather adjust the count as right now I can only count what I see.