Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Two Items to Note

First, the easy part. With today's upward movement, the alternate diagonal we showed on Saturday with the intention to monitor and measure it did, in fact, invalidate today.

Now, for the slightly harder part. As of yesterday, we said we were still in the minute ((iii)) wave upward. As of tonight, we simply want to show the measurement that wave ((iii)) = 1.618 x ((i)). Here is the chart.

SP500 Half-Hour Minute ((iii)) = 1.618 x ((i))

As of the end of the day, there was nothing to say that price movement upward had necessarily ended. In fact, in the after hours, the futures were slightly higher.

If upward price movement ends in this neighborhood, then it's possible for a wave minute ((iv)) to form downward and not overlap. Further, the internal count on this wave is not certain. It is simply one that results in alternation.

If price exceeds 2347.12, then the count would likely result in Minor 1 being placed at the Nov 8 - 9 high, so that wave Minor 5 is not longer than Minor 3.

So, let's see how things go.  In the weekly ES chart, below, wave Intermediate (3) is getting very close to the upper parallel trend line. So, that is something to keep in mind.

Weekly ES E-Mini S&P Futures Contract Trend Channel

From a social perspective, today the President said, (paraphrase) "the market likes what we are doing and so it is setting records." Gulp. And  T.V. commentators are getting increasingly confident of no reversals. From a technical perspective, price, while the daily slow stochastic is embedded, is over the daily Bollinger Bands for consecutive days. And advancers and decliners were about even on this 'rally day'. Odd.

Cheers, and have a great evening!
TraderJoe

3 comments:

  1. Wave 3 can over shoot the parallel trend channel, and pretty much always has.

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  2. Nice ET, I agree with that view. Thank you !

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    Replies
    1. Well, that ((3)) is much more extended.

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