Friday, February 3, 2017

Trying it On For Size

So, within the Intermediate wave (3), we have either finished the Minor 5th wave up (less likely), or are in the minute iii wave up of Minor 5. We don't have 'proof' of minute iii, yet, because there is not a new all time high. But, close, and it seems likely enough.

SP500 Daily - Within Intermediate (3) and Minor 5

But we need to allow that minute iii could be a fooler for those looking for a massive rally. We have to admit in advance to not knowing precisely how this wave will play out. But, Minor 5 is at a large enough degree that it 'could' end with a diagonal. I discussed an idea of the current possible count within a diagonal in the live chat room today.

But, because that idea is tentative, I will not publish it here at the moment. Suffice it to say that if we make a new all-time high in the SP500, then - whether impulse or diagonal - we would likely be in the minute iii wave of Minor 5, higher. (If a higher high is not made, then wave Minor 5 ended at the 2301 high.)

Another very plausible idea is that for alternation, because minute ii, down from the 2031 high, would be so deep and well defined, it could be that minute iv will be unusually short and ill-defined before the final top. Hard to determine in advance, but we'll try to keep on top of it.

The other thing to say today is that, regardless of what tool or tools you use to note the momentum divergence - whether EWO, RSI, MACD, or Stochastics - the current level of that divergence is quite large, and furthermore, many indexes or futures are very close to their upper daily Bollinger Bands - which may be a warning.

That's all for the time being. Be good.


  1. Hi Joe

    Seems the market has been ignoring negative divergences for a long time.

    Maybe this will be the one to trun it.

  2. Hi Joe, thank you for the updates! really helpful.
    I have one question: if we have an impulse like you mention, how far do you think we can go on the SPX? do you still have the 2320ish or much higher? thanks