Monday, February 6, 2017

Quick Follow-Up

So, in Saturday's post, we were expecting a fourth wave lower, iv, which should not have crossed below the 2283.97 level so that it did not overlap with it's first wave lower, i, on the right-hand-side in the SP500 30-min chart below.

SP500 30-min Wave iv 'likely' completed

And, after prices made a tad bit more than a 38.2% retrace on wave iii, downward movement ceased for the day in a completed count downward for wave iv, as w-x-y, with the 'x' wave being that little pip above the prior wave iii - much too short for a fifth wave. You'll now note the position of the Elliott Wave Oscillator so close to zero at this time.

The next test for the market is to see if it can make the nine-to-ten points needed to make yet another new all-time-high (ATH). Usually, that is a day or two's trading - so all eyes are watching.

As per the steps in The Eight Fold Path Methodology, when wave four has been identified, then we adjust the channel so the lower boundary is on the wave ii, iv price extremes. So, that has been done and now wave iii is clearly above the channel indicating that it is the wave with the most momentum. The first price target is a new high that is near the mid-point of the channel. That is usually v = i. If that price target is exceeded, then the price target becomes v = 0.618 x (net distance i through iii).

If and / or when a new price high is made, then we can begin to discuss the form of minute ((iii)) of Minor 5 because we will then have evidence that a minute ((iii)) wave is underway.

Please note: from here on out in this blog, I will use double parentheses to indicate minute waves in text form. The double parentheses will indicate a "circle" from now on, and allow me to avoid repeating minute iii (circle iii), for example. One of the charting programs actually makes a circle for the minute waves, the other does not (it's dumb - what can I say?). So hopefully the symbol of two parentheses will translate for you as ((iii)) = circle iii = minute iii.

Thanks for your patience and understanding. Have a great evening.
TraderJoe

6 comments:

  1. Thanks Joe. You have a typo in your first line. Should be 2283.97, not 2293.97.

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  2. Thanks a lot, Joe!
    Could it be that the entire Trump rally is a zigzag instead of an impulse and now the market is trying to trace out a wave 5 of the EDT wave C?

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    1. In one alternate count, I have it similar in the SP500, but a single zigzag with election day as the "A" wave of that zigzag, and the remainder as C. Purpose is so the S&P500 can make the overall ending diagonal. But, there is no good evidence this is occurring over an impulse at this time. So, I'm counting like an impulse until an impulse is dis-proven.

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    2. Got it, thanks.

      twygg, formerly 'momentum24'

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