Wednesday, February 22, 2017

Nothing Changed from Yesterday

Nothing has changed from yesterday. An overlap downward of 2051.50 on the ES March futures would help confirm the fourth wave of a diagonal to possibly end minute ((iii)) of Minor 3 of Intermediate (3). But, a minor new high can occur first without invalidating the opportunity - but not beyond the levels we provided yesterday.

In the meanwhile, here are two longer term monthly views - one linear scale and one semi-log scale.

SP500 Monthly Linear Scale

Nothing in this chart is to be construed yet that upward movement has ended.  But, there may be some resistance at this original monthly channel line.

SP500 Monthly Semi-Log Scale

Once again, nothing says upward movement has ended. Price is nicking above the mid-channel here and may find some resistance here, as well.

Enjoy the evening.
TraderJoe

12 comments:

  1. Thanks for the wonderful insights.

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  2. Absolutely brilliant analysis as always. I have the same counts and waiting for the markets to confirm top as and when it occurs. Do you think 5th could extend? Also, i have a query about elliott wave guideline - Is it atleast one of the waves extend in a impulse or is it only one wave extend in an impulse?

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    1. Thanks for the comment. There are always two targets for a fifth wave. The first target is always 5 = 1; the second target is always 5 = 0.618 x net distance traveled by waves 1 - through 3. The 'net distance traveled' is same as the distance from 0 to 3. 'Usually' when wave 3 extends, then wave 5 does not become longer than it.

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    2. Correct me if I'm wrong here, but in the big picture (since 2009), 5=1 at SPX 2,363 as mblcta pointed out...and thus at 5 = .618 x 1 would be...net distance from 667 to 2,134 is 1,467, times .618 and added to 1,810 = 2,717?

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    3. I'll go over the options this weekend.

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  3. Thanks Joe. Not sure if you have mentioned this, but in the big picture, 5=1 right where the market is now. (667-1220) = (1810-2363) The time is basically equal as well.

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  4. Thank you Joe for your reply. Is there any chance that instead of a fifer from 2009 lows, we may have 1-2, i-ii combination and we are in iii of 3. I am asking this considering 2009 downtrend lows as some kind of 2 and we may be in 3 where such kind of action is normally expected.

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    1. Welcome. It's speculation at this point, although some technical indicators are pointing in that direction. Will try to put some "fresh eyes" on it in the next few days. Sentiment is arguing against it, though.

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  5. TJ, ED invalidated even though 3 is still shorter than 1. to overlap 1, 4 would be longer than 2 now.

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    1. Correct! Looking now for triangle, larger E-D or other alternative.

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    2. Possible running triangle from 2340, but downward overlaps still needed to better validate this option.

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