|SP500 5-Minute Chart : NOT the Eight Fold Path|
While some traders might have been tempted to label this up-wave as a five-wave sequence, from the perspective of The Eight Fold Path method, while there can be 'construed' to be five-waves-up, if one tries hard enough, there are three big difficulties with it.
The first is this: It is almost impossible to count the first two waves as anything other than a first wave up, (1) and a sideways second wave (2). And that is regardless of exactly which peak the tentative wave (1) is placed. Next, it is very difficult to position wave (3) as anywhere other than as shown, because if the subsequent peaks were used, then it would make wave (3) a diagonal, and, in an impulse wave, wave (3) is never allowed to be an entire diagonal, itself. So, that clearly would make wave (4) the triangle - which I called out in real time; and most likely "last wave up dead ahead". But, that very triangle is the difficulty for the impulse count. Because the triangle has a higher (b) wave, then it does not provide alternation for the higher (b) wave of wave (2). So, to summarize, the first problem is no alternation.
The second problem is to notice that wave (4) does not come down to attack the lower channel line, as delineated in the method.
Third: Notice the EWO signature is surprisingly close to that required by the method, but not quite. The peak reading of the EWO does not represent a third-of-a-third wave, even though there are the required number of candles on the chart. So, my view yesterday in the live chat room especially given the only marginal highs on the Dow and the S&P was "probably just a B wave".
Today, prices have fallen sufficiently low enough to conclude we do have the C wave of an expanded flat (probably within a larger fourth wave) underway. What form that C wave will take (impulse or diagonal) will be interesting in and of itself. Regardless, another prediction from the methodology is likely coming true.
Hopefully, this type of rigorous, fully disclosed, procedure, can be more useful than "guessing" where letters and numbers go on a Elliott Wave chart.
Have a great day!