Saturday, February 25, 2017

Minute ((iii)) of Minor 3 is now Complete

In my post of February 21, entitled William Tell, I stated that I was looking for a contracting ending diagonal to end minute wave ((iii)) of Minor Wave 3, of Intermediate Wave (3). On February 23, a fairly reliable reader wrote in to say that the contracting ending diagonal was busted. And, as far as his comment, it was correct in-so-far as I had published the potential diagonal. But, it turned out I was working on numerous things that day and didn't have time to closely visit the situation. But I did this weekend, and this is what I found: a diagonal did, indeed, complete in good form. William Tell, told!


ES E-Mini S&P 2 HR Futures Diagonal Correct in Every Detail

As you can see, within the diagonal, wave v is shorter than wave iii, wave iii is shorter than wave i, wave iv is shorter than wave ii, and wave iv overlaps wave i. The diagonal is perfect in every detail. There is even a beautiful B wave triangle shown which is before the last upward wave.

I apologize to all readers because this error turned me around and caused me to look for a much larger running triangle instead of the diagonal. Once again, diagonals (like potential triangles) are funny birds. They will tend to fool you and sometimes distract you with odd time relationships. But, this one is now completed. And I have no qualms with the reader because he is usually very accurate, and I'm sure he was just trying to be helpful. And, then again, it was mostly me that rushed the count to scrap heap without proper verification. But, the reason I apologize is that I am trying to help build your confidence in regular old EW Theory. And making errors does not help that cause!*

And, so too, one can see with the correct number of candles on the chart we now have the Elliott Wave Oscillator now making that characteristic fourth wave signature, currently at between +10% to -40% of the previous peaks.  Further, we have the situation where wave ((iv)) has come down to attack the lower trend channel boundary - just as it should in The Eight Fold Path Method. And because wave ((iv)) is currently a zigzag, it does, of itself, provide sufficient alternation for the very sideways minute wave ((ii)). And that is regardless of exactly where you position minute wave ((i)).

So, now the question is does minute wave ((v)) proceed directly from here, or does minute wave ((iv)) extend further lower? Well, if that is truly a diagonal (and not it's cousin the triple zigzag B wave upward), then it should try to retrace to it's origins in less time than it took to build it. One thing that does seem odd in this entire up wave is that there has not been even a 38.2% retracement so far. Perhaps (.. just perhaps..) that is what's coming.

There simply aren't any guarantees, but this blog is about what is most common and usual about Elliott Wave theory, and it is not uncommon at all for a fourth wave to have a 38.2% retrace, yet it is not required. Regardless, we should now drop the upper edge of the channel so it only contracts waves minute ((i)) and minute ((iii)) to look for the end to minute wave ((iv)), if it is not done.

If the President addresses the joint session of Congress on  Tuesday February 28th, it might have some impact on this wave. We'll see how it goes.

*Note: I am very well aware that some people don't want to see regular EW verified. This is either because they want to believe things like, "you can only see it in the past", or "Prechter made too many bad calls", or some other guru has the supposed keys to the universe. I, on-the-other-hand, am just trying to show you that with hard work and persistence, a person can understand this theory. I am also very well aware that some people want to use every wave top as a place to go short, or something similar. That is not at all the purpose of this article. (I will try to better address some aspects of trading with Elliott Wave in an upcoming video).

Have a good weekend.
TraderJoe

8 comments:

  1. Thanks Joe. I have a few questions.
    1)If I understand what you have stated previously, if the market doesn't come straight down to the previous 4th wave (2319.75)in less time than it took to form the suspected diagonal, and before exceeding the high of the suspected diagonal, then it wasn't a diagonal. Correct?
    2) If it turns out not to be a diagonal, what would the alternate count be? You mentioned a B wave, but I don't know where wave A would be.
    3)Much of the overlapping action occurred during low volume night session trading, not to mention that one of those session was a market holiday. Those overlaps don't occur in the cash markets (SPX and DOW,) so how would you reconcile those counts?

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    1. Cash made an impulse five up from the point of (iv). The futures and overnight markets made a five-wave diagonal. The counts fit together.

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    2. Ok. So that solves my 3rd question, but what about the first 2 questions? Thanks again.

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    3. The first two questions largely involve speculation. There is good opportunity for a retrace. The impulse in cash 'tends' to negate the full diagonal retrace imperative, but not to the point where it couldn't happen, particularly in the overnight futures market.

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    4. Ok. I always like to identify alternate counts that are valid at any given time, so that I'm prepared no matter what the market does. However, I can't come up with an alternate count in ES that would allow for the market to continue higher from here. If the overlapping structure upwards was some sort of B wave, then it couldn't be counted as part of a completed irregular flat or a running flat, because Friday's decline didn't come down far enough to overlap anything.

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    5. Agree. So I didn't want to go there.

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  2. Hi Elliott_Trader,

    Thank you so much for sharing us as always.

    I want to confirm that if Minute ((iii)) of Minor 3 done, then ((iii)) of Minor 3 is 2368.28.

    "There simply aren't any guarantees, but this blog is about what is most common and usual about Elliott Wave theory, and it is not uncommon at all for a fourth wave to have a 38.2% retrace, yet it is not required. Regardless, we should now drop the upper edge of the channel so it only contracts waves minute ((i)) and minute ((iii)) to look for the end to minute wave ((iv)), if it is not done."

    If now is ((iv)), SP cash could NOT exceed ((iii)) which is 2368.28.
    if now is ((v)), it should exceed ((iii)) which is 2368.28, and it should short than ((iii)) which is 2368.28-2285.38 = 82.9.

    Two questions:
    1. ((iv)) which is the Friday's low is 2352.87 seemed so short in term of time, it only took few minutes, and only retraced 2368.28 - 2352.87 = 15.41 (about 19% 0f ((iii)))
    2. Once ((v)) is done, let's say 2385, it should retrace at least 38.2% from ((i)) which is 2233.63.
    So Minor 4 is about 2385 - (2385 - (i))*.38.2% = 2326

    Thank you in advance.

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  3. Hi Joe
    How you qualified Fridays low in Spx/es as IV
    what if it goes below fridays low

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