Friday, February 10, 2017

Minute ((iii)) Longer Than Minute ((i))

In the chart below, minute wave ((iii)) of Minor 5, upward, of Intermediate (3), upward became longer than minute ((i)), this morning. See the blue-colored Fibonacci ruler. This further tends to invalidate some of the possible diagonal scenarios people were throwing around the last few days. We said, Minor 5 could sub-divide as all the other Minor waves in the sequence have, and it has.

SP500 4-Hr Chart : Minute ((iii)) Longer Than Minute ((i))

Therefore, as long as prices remain in the tiny new up channel we sketched in there is no reason to conclude upward movement is over exactly yet. (We'd like to see a few more fourth and fifth waves in this general area - perhaps beginning Monday or Tuesday.)

BUT, if you've been watching the volume figures, they are growing smaller and smaller, particularly on the futures. This to me is another significant caution signal. It seems like the market is coasting and people are on auto-pilot or hanging on for dear life. I'm not sure which. Meanwhile, actual risk builds to the down side (in my opinion).

Well, that's all for today. Maybe some more over the weekend. Have a good night.
TraderJoe

5 comments:

  1. Hi TJ,
    You have done a nice job with your long term analysis. I look for you for my ew analysis. But, I am noticing the short-term predictions are wrong most of the time. Why bother doing the short-term counts? If they don't come to fruition, it just reinforces that ew is not that helpful, at least in short term decisions. Do you find short term counts pretty worthless?

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    1. Hi Todd. Thanks for your comment. No. There is much to garner from short term counts. Most of the ones that seem 'wrong' to you, happen in fourth waves. I am trying to help people learn about what I call The Fourth Wave Conundrum - about how truly unpredictable they, fourth waves, are. I would like for people to understand deeply that the real reason they don't trust Elliott Wave Theory is 'inherent' in the theory itself. Most people don't get it. They 'shrug'. They don't work to find the answer. Sometimes they 'snicker' and say mean things. Yet, there it is: I called the bottom on Jan 20 (including the truncation) almost to within a 30-minute interval in the live chart room. Worthless? Hardly. It hasn't been exceeded lower since. Can I help it went on to form a triangle? No, sorry. Not within my power. I don't make the waves. I only try to count them.

      Now you might be the type that thinks that every turn of a intraday wave count results in a trading decision or a market reversal. That's not the way I view it, and that's why I have published a paraphrase of Ira Epstein's Guidelines for trading (versus wave counting) for those that are interested. Here is the LINK again.

      http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2015/11/paraphrase-of-ira-epsteins-rules-for.html

      Copy and paste to your browser as needed.

      Stick with it, and the light will brighten even more.
      TJ

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    2. That was a very nice reply. Thank you.

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  2. Keep up the good work Joe. I'm learning about alternative counts with your posts.

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