|Intermediate (3) in the SP500 3-Hourly Chart|
So, that using this chart, and keeping the Dow and S&P500 synchronized with triangles ending on the same day, this now provides specific limits for Minor wave 5. Since, on this chart we can see all of the minute sub-divisions within Minor 1, and Minor 3, we expect we are seeing the sub-divisions within Minor 5, as well.
Further, if we define Minor 4 as the end of the triangle, and wave Minor 5 must still remain shorter than Minor 3 (since Minor 3 is shorter than Minor 1), then the farthest Minor 5 can travel is to 2347.11 in the most generous assessment. Yes, it can fall short of that. One common target when wave 5 is the shortest wave is 0.618 times the length of wave 3, at 2312.70, but that is not a required limit.
Further, the above chart shows a beautiful example of what the Elliott Wave Oscillator looks like for a triangle (forming a triangle pattern itself - brown reference line), and it is to be noted that price is currently on a significant divergence with the EWO (blue reference line) - something which can continue for a while, but not too long. That does cause concern that this portion of the rally is nearing an end, so the 0.618 target may hold. There is no magic here: either it holds or it doesn't. Again, it is not required to hold.
You will also note that the RSI is also diverging. Because of the intraday time frame we picked RSI-11 while generating this study, but checked, and RSI -14 shows a similar result. So, that is another cause for concern.
Having a valid triangle, with a clear minute-e wave (circle e) also provides us with a very specific invalidation point. No matter what, the upward wave (Minor 5) is over if price breaks below 2257.02 before higher waves are made. And, when Minor 5 completes, this will be the confirmation point of completion of the wave, as well.
Have a good weekend,