The NYSE advance-decline line was actually negative on today's close. After being positive territory all day long the ratio at the bell was 1,426 (adv) to 1,584 (dec). While not a disaster, it really doesn't speak of party hats!
Here is a look at the chart as it was being published in the live chat room all day today.
|SP500 15-Minute Wave Minute i (Circle i) of Minor 5|
The chart would indicate that if wave micro-2 (circle-2) is a flat, then wave micro 4 (circle-4) is a zigzag which hasn't by any means overlapped wave micro-1 (circle-1), yet, and this provides excellent alternation within this vth wave of the (c) wave up of minute i (circle-i). So, one more up wave - and potentially one higher high - should do it before starting on minute-ii (circle-ii) in the downward direction. Assuming that occurs, we think the five minute waves up, counted as (circle i, ii, iii, iv, v), when & IF they form properly, is overall a contracting ending diagonal for the end of minor 5 of Intermediate (3) per the count in the weekend video.
How far can minute-ii (circle-ii) go lower? As far as it wants provided it does not trade below the minor 4th wave at 2234. What shape should minute-ii (circle-ii) have? Well, it should be a zigzag. (Remember in a zigzag, the 'b' wave can still be a flat or a running triangle.) It would not be uncommon to see a 62 - 87% retrace, but just filling either of the two clear gaps on the chart could do it too. The supposed "deep retrace" for the internal legs is a guideline only!
Again .. assuming the higher high occurs.
If the higher high does not occur, the best alternate is that today completed a Leading Diagonal first wave - because we were able to count one of those earlier today on the NQ chart. Either way, a second wave down (or more) is likely looking at us right in the face.
But .. let's at least give the party hat guys a chance!
Until then, remember wave micro-4 (circle 4) would invalidate if it overlaps wave micro-1 (circle-1) before a new all time high is made in the market.
Why do we think the up wave has a little farther to go in terms of completing an ending diagonal? Because it should 'try' to establish a Fibonacci ratio with it's Minor 3 wave counterpart. But all of that is in the future.
Have a nice weekend.