Sunday, January 1, 2017

New Year Elliott Wave Video

31 comments:

  1. Great stuff. A couple of points...for SPX- between august 2016 and november 2016 the high that you have marked as X could also be 1 of 3. For oil, beside diagonal another count, another possible count A from 26 to 51-ish then B as a running expanded flat where B making a slight higher high (for its b wave) and then from 42 we might be in C for the whole ABC move of oil from 26.

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    1. Thanks. Re: X; While it 'could' be another 1, channel analysis argues against it. That is the current wave (2) is the low point of the EWO .. and that is objective. Re: Oil; when counting it live, because of overlaps, I could not count the A wave as a 'five' without the diagonal. Perhaps you can suggest how. Thanks again for the comment.

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    2. Jack, the problem with counting multiple 1-2s from the Feb 2016 low is that, typically, no part of wave 3 will ever violate the 0-2 trendline. That's why the Brexit low can't be the end of a wave 2.

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  2. Thanks Joe. Happy 2017 and keep the good work going!

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  3. Great EW craftsmanship once again, Joe!
    Happy New Year!

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  4. Joe,

    How do I join your live forum? Thanks for all your contributions!

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    1. Hi, John. Send me an email at et@studyofcycles.com. and I'll provide the information. Thanks, Joe.

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  5. Thank you for the excellent analysis, Joe. Happy New Year!

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    1. Hi Joe ... In your analysis of gold at 13min mark, you have 2011 as the top of a large V, presumably ending a bull run that goes back to 1800. Are you implying by this that for those of us alive today, gold has topped, and that it should retrace for decades from that peak?

      I took a different view here .... http://goldtadise.com/?p=351923

      concluding that 2011 was the top of 5 of III, and that we are perhaps midway through IV. Basically, I drop your recent waves since 1970 down one degree.

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  6. Thanks Joe! Happy and Prosperous New Year

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  7. Joe, healthy and Happy New yr and thanks for the video. I can't see clearly on the right side of chart where cycle wave 4 would end but it looks like around where the top occurred in 1987 before the crash which is around 3000. Is that where it should be at the lower channel? Thanks Sam

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    1. Sam. Difficult to say so far in advance. It will be different if it's a flat versus the triangle forming. The triangle could be shallower. But, when we get there we'll be looking for prior fourth waves. Certainly the 6,500 bottom was one. Beyond that would be the fourth wave at the 1995 low.

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  8. Tx- "Some websites got very bearish in 2015" Yup OEW and caldaro called the end of the BULL MARKET and 40-50% decline to come. Now he says we are at the begging of a new bull market and if you dare mention the past, you are banished for life.

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  9. Thanks Joe--nothing tops your analysis anywhere on the internet. A great Christmas present for me and all. Happy New Year!
    rose

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    1. Thanks Rose. Appreciate the fine comment, and have a very nice New Year.

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  10. Joe, Thank you for this fantastic video! Much appreciated. It is wonderful to have your long term and short term views summarized & communicated so clearly here.

    Happy & Healthy 2017!

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    1. Thanks Rich, and Happy New Year to you too!

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  11. One last question. Cycle wave 2 took about 3 yrs I believe til it bottomed. Would you expect Cycle wave 4 to take about the same amount of time. Would the time differ if it were a flat vs a triangle? Thanks again. Sam

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    1. Fourth waves are generally recognized because they take so much longer than second waves in time. A regular flat would be shortest, a triangle would be longest, and a flat-x-zigzag or double zigzag would likely be intermediate between the two. The correction will take as long as needed to get to the lower parallel.

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  12. Thanx Joe for the excellent video. Your work is much appreciated.

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  13. Joe, great video, extremely informative! On your monthly chart of gold the EWO is peaking at circle wave 5. Generally, shouldn't the EWO be diverging at wave 5?

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    1. Hi John. Good question. Yes, in general it should. I have taken that to mean that Gold at the peak is only at the peak of Cycle V (shown in the video) which is the peak of SuperCycle (III) - not explicitly shown in video - and so we could be in a SuperCycle (IV)th wave in GOLD. This does not necessarily mean the DOLLAR has finished it's rise as the value of the US Dollar, also relates to the value of Crude and the value of other foreign currencies. The point is if GOLD is in a Cycle or SuperCycle sized decline at the moment, then it could 'also' be indicative of a further rise in the US Dollar Index, along with the other factors.

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  14. (originally posted as a reply to someone's remarks above, since there wasn't a Post Comment box the first time ... so I'll re post the comment)

    Hi Joe ... In your analysis of gold at 13min mark, you have 2011 as the top of a large V, presumably ending a bull run that goes back to 1800. Are you implying by this that for those of us alive today, gold has topped, and that it should retrace for decades from that peak?

    I took a different view here .... http://goldtadise.com/?p=351923

    concluding that 2011 was the top of 5 of III, and that we are perhaps midway through IV. Basically, I drop your recent waves since 1970 down one degree.

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    1. Hi, Pieter. Please see the response to John C., above.

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    2. Thanks, Joe. If this is indeed SC IV, from your recent tutorials, I gather we should expect the EWO to dip below the zero line ahead of its bottom. Would this be on the monthly? Is there a standard association that we can apply when counting waves at a specific degree and their timeframes (eg, monthly, etc) as used to construct our charts?
      Specifically, in this case, should the monthly EWO go negative during the last leg down of a corrective SC IV?

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    3. The correct procedure is that, in an impulse, the EWO goes to +10% to -40% of the prior wave 3 high when there are approximately 120 to 160 candles on the chart. 80 is too few, and 200 is too many. I haven't worked out the further details yet.

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  15. Great content as ever Joe, the best out there as far as i'm concerned, by a mile. Best Regards and have a great 2017 Richard

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    1. Thanks Richard. I appreciate the comment.

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