|ES E-Mini S&P Future - Current Count|
From the election night low, we have Minor 1, up, Minor 2, down, Minor 3, up which is shorter than Minor 1. Over the Christmas holiday we got Minor 4, which was described in detail, and we are now, most likely, in the Minor 5th wave. The ES has not made a higher high over wave Minor 3, yet. The cash Dow and S&P have.
Price is still over the 18-day SMA and so still has a "positive bias" as Ira Epstein might phrase it. But the Bollinger Bands are now narrow and moving sideways, prices have been choppy, and wave counting is "testy" at best. As far as I can tell - in both the Dow and S&P, the count that explains it best, it "(a)", up, and "(b)" sideways as part of a very ugly diagonal in formation. That is because we have found one way to consider the Dow and the S&P hourly charts at equivalent locations at this point in time.
First, the Dow ..
|Dow Hourly - minuet (a) up, (b) down|
Please note this wave count would invalidate with any lower low below 19,718 as shown by the red line.
Now for the S&P - which is a little messier.
|S&P Hourly - minuet (a) up, (b) down|
In the case of the S&P500, the minuet (b) wave may be taking the form of a terminal triangle. We have sketched in the case where the triangle is completed - just as we did in live chat today. But, I also noted that "triangles can expand one time", and it is possible the up wave at the end of the day today is only the end of the D wave (within the triangle), and it's possible to move the upper trend line of the triangle higher, and that an E wave down will occur tomorrow at the opening.
In either case, any higher high this week would likely be the (c) wave up of minute i (circle i) of a larger diagonal that is playing out and is sketched in, above, on the ES E-mini S&P Daily chart that opens this article.