Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Let's Keep It SImple

This is the count that seems to best apply to the 'election rally'. It's looking like four minor waves with the fourth wave still in progress.

Election Rally in the SP500 - Do You Believe in Santa Claus?

That fact that we have only four possible minor waves tells us that we are still in Intermediate wave (3). The waves would be described as an extended first wave, a short second wave, then a 3rd wave which is just under or slightly over 61.8% the length of wave 1.

So far waves 2 and 4 have a very nice pattern of alternation, with no higher high in wave 2, and definitely a higher high in wave 4. On this time scale of a two-hourly chart, wave 4 might still be expected to travel lower to cross the EMA-34 for form and balance. But, the blue box indicates that the lowest a wave 4 should travel would be about 2235 - to travel about the same net distance from 3, as 2 did from 1. The blue box is the size of wave 2, and it is positioned at the top of wave 3.

So far, we have a sharp for wave 2, and a flat for wave 4. Isn't that wonderful? Just remember, a FLAT could also start a double flat, or a flat-x-zigzag to make life difficult enough to create the time needed for the  consolidation. It is also possible to consider the highest high as wave 3, and perhaps a triangle is even starting to form . Each of those structures would fit well in the fourth wave position. And there are many other variations, as well (triple flat, etc.)

But notice how high the EWO is. It's not even close to the zero line, yet. So perhaps - just perhaps - the correction needs more time. That is what I mean in my YouTube video, A Critique of Elliott Wave for Trading, that fourth waves are very difficult to predict in their entirety, and I have given it the name of the fourth wave conundrum.

So even though the EMA-34 has not been crossed yet, could the correction be over? Well, there are ways for it to go further sideways but not go much lower in price. Maybe the EMA-34 will catch-up to price, rather than the other way around.

Also, I want to note two things specifically. First, the DOW made a higher high today where the S&P500 did not. Secondly, by way of a specific invalidation target, wave 4 may not overlap wave 1 for an impulse count. There is no evidence that the market is not impulsing in this wave, yet.

Cheers!

6 comments:

  1. Two queries if I may...

    1. Where the EWO dips below zero, isn't that indicative of a wave-4 pullback?

    2. After the dip below zero, the EWO rises again but fails to take out the previous highest peak, diverging with price action. This suggests the previous highest peak was wave-3 and the second EWO peak a few days ago was wave-5.

    Therefore, is it plausible to suggest that the Trump rally from the November low to yesterday's/today's high completes a five wave structure?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. First dip to near or below zero is usually wave 2; second dip to near or below zero is wave 4. Plausible, yes .. proven, no.

      Delete
  2. Thanks Joe. Did minor 1 start on Election Day and if so does it mean wave 5 can not be larger than wave 3? Also what is the OEW?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes. And you should know what OEW is. You post over there all the time. If you post here, and aren't paying attention to anything, then I will have no problem to ban your account.

      Delete
    2. Sorry Joe it was a typo. I had meant to ask what the EWO is. Appoligies if I missed an explanation of this from a different post.

      Delete