Saturday, December 17, 2016

Another Wedge

In prior blog posts, we suggested that because of the short wave two's, the S&P500 might be forming a wedge impulse, in which Intermediate Wave (1) was the extended wave in the impulse sequence, and Intermediate Wave (3) would be shorter. And, a similar sequence appears to be forming within Intermediate Wave (3), with minor 1 the longest wave, and minor 3 at 0.618 x 1. This week's corrective behavior  - having occurred right on schedule - tends to bear that out, with us now being in minor wave 4 of Intermediate (3).

But Elliott Wave labels aside, here is a chart just to view the general shape and pattern, and for you to just ask yourself a question (following the chart).

NQ Daily Futures without Wave Labels

Ask yourself, "why is this market in an obvious overlapping wedge?" And, "why has this market continually hit the resistance line across the tops and been turned back?". If you arrive at the same answer I did, you might see it as support for the wedge impulse on the S&P500, as well. While it does not prove the count on the SP500, it certainly does lend evidence to the case. We have a good idea what the actual count is here, but we'll leave that exercise for your homework (hint: just remember all of the full and completed legs of a diagonal may only be zigzags, and not FLAT waves - although some B waves within each zigzag can certainly be flat waves).

But we do want to note that any downward price movement below 4850 would create more downward overlaps that would be difficult to reconcile with a bullish case.

Speaking of the tech sector, because of the Yahoo! fiasco, I have thought it prudent to close that previous email account (Elliott_Trader@yahoo.com), and can now be reached by email only at the following address.

MAIL LINK

I would appreciate it if you do not send emails, unless needed, to that address. I will otherwise be happy to answer select questions on the blog.

Thanks and have a great pre-holiday week!

2 comments:

  1. Did the EWO meet the minimum requirement for a completed minor 4 yet?

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    Replies
    1. No, not yet. The EMA-34 has not been crossed lower yet.

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