Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Watch 2,193 on the ole S&P

In Saturday's post, we noted the booming level of sentiment, and the building divergences. With today's higher high, most of these have have gotten worse - not better. Here is the count as we have it today. We are happy to say that in live chat, we pointed out the "running triangle' fourth wave shown in blue, making today's new higher high the potential wave v .. of something .. we'll explain below. And we did start a downward count.

Hourly S&P 500 with higher all-time-high out of Triangle

So, when we took some measurements on this chart, yesterday, and provided them in live chat, we found that a minor C wave would equal 0.618 x minor A between Friday's high, and today's high. Further, within wave C, then minute iii would equal 2.618 x minute i, to the pip. The internal waves are also shown.

Because of the narrow trading channel, indicating loss of momentum for the C wave, and the "election result" wave A - which itself has some very peculiar properties (like starting from an overnight halt in the futures market), we think this minor new high in both the DOW and S&P500 counts best as Intermediate wave (3) in the weekly chart below.

Intermediate (3) likely complete in the weekly SP-500 with marginal new high

So, now the thing to do is to watch to see if Intermediate wave (1), upward, is overlapped in the downward direction by price crossing below 2193. If it does, and if the minor A wave of Intermediate wave (3) at 2182 is also overlapped. then there should be much more confidence that an Intermediate Wave (4) is getting under way.

We'll have more to say on this later. But any bulls out there - and there are quite a few of them based on the sentiment numbers - simply had to be disappointed by today's close. Instead of today being "gap and go" for them, it was "gap and trap", as today's opening gap was closed in short order. We can not 'positively' rule out new highs at this point, but the overlaps indicated would help do so.

For my part, and this is not trading or investment advice, just my opinion - I do not currently have a favorable outlook on the market. That may change, but that's the way things stand today. In my opinion there is more down side risk than there is potential upside reward, and this is said with complete recognition that higher highs of 3 - 5% are possible.

Hope this helps.

6 comments:

  1. Thanks Joe. Whenever you see the DOW up 100+ points, yet declining issues are outnumbering advancing issues, you know it's a trap. That was the situation all morning.

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  2. seems like oil has been in leading diagonal from feb low (wave A) to complete in next few days with a slight higher high

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  3. Hello joe
    En route to finish the primary v
    If one is in the right account

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