Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Risk Has Gone Up

The experiment we tried in the last post - that of counting a barrier triangle minute (e) wave higher did not work out. An upward wave to cross the EMA-34 on the two-hour time frame did not fully occur. Instead, we only got the (alternate) B wave, upward, that was clearly indicated in the SP500 15-minute chart (again, refer to previous day post).

Remember the overall purpose of that proposed triangle was to find one way to get the S&P500 to overlap it's April, 2016, high of 2011.00 - just as the Dow and the NYA had previously.

On that failure to make an (e) wave, price proceeded to make a new daily low. In fact, then price went on to overlap the 2011 level, trading as low as 2097+, and filling the gap in the middle of the chart shown in green. That made all those people who were formerly counting 1,2,3,4.. up from the June low incorrect. They had ignored the Dow and the NYA overlap. We did not.

Therefore, that leaves us with the following scenario - which is that of a contracting diagonal.

SP500 Daily Contracting Diagonal with Acceptable Measurements and Structure

This contracting diagonal scenario is good down to wave (v) = 2089. Beyond there, wave (v) would be longer than wave (iii) - which is not allowed in a contracting diagonal. The market did close on a back-test of the lower diagonal trend line. We can not say (no one can) whether such a diagonal is leading or ending. We suspect the latter, but there is little evidence for it, yet.

The only point of this exercise is to say that the remaining upward counts in the S&P are Intermediate (2) down of the contracting ending diagonal for Primary V. Or minor 2, down, of Intermediate (3) up of an impulse. Neither of those counts can come into clear focus until or unless five-wave upward impulses begin to be made. We must stress, we do not know this pattern is completed to the down side yet!

Regardless, there is a Fed meeting tomorrow to pay some attention to, and it should now be clear that wave counting risk has gone up. The number of points now needed to validate a wave scenario keeps getting larger and larger.


  1. Doesn't wave v > iii = below 2090?

    1. Hi. Steve. Measured it again tonight to be sure, and I got 2089.65, so, yes! I corrected the typo.

  2. Thanks Joe; without your counts we still would be in Elliott's Kindergarten!