But unlike some market prognosticators - even some various serious Elliott wave types - we did not scream "top tick", nor did we call for a new Primary III bull market. Neither did we post some outlandish new price targets like many gurus. Instead, we advocated for calm, and flexibility. (Check out or post of 11/12/2016 - and look how many more days have had new higher highs.)
So, after considering numerous possibilities this week, this is the count that seems most on track. It is just the Minor A wave as a impulse, rather than as a diagonal.
|DJIA - Hourly - Minor A Wave as a Diagonal|
This count has already proven itself, and since minute wave iii is longer than minute wave i, then minute wave v can be almost any length - but it is a common target than v = i, and this wave is approaching that level. The A wave may still not be completely done, but it is getting very close.
After this wave wraps up, then there should be a pull-back for a B wave - that realistically can be 23.6 - 78.6% of wave A, followed by a C wave up.
We have to admit because there is a triangle involved - which 'could' be the B wave, itself, then the best alternate would be that Intermediate (3) is completing at this time. But there is no significant evidence, other than the triangle, for that point of view just yet. Still, there is a triangle, and a triangle should precede the last wave up in this series. But, and this is a big but, that triangle is a "running triangle", and running triangles - with their higher (b) waves - are still bullish, and still point to higher market highs at some point.
This "A" wave would be part of Intermediate (3) of the potential larger weekly diagonal we diagrammed in previous posts. And, again, we said we have no preference as to whether this upward wave completes as a diagonal or an impulse. And there is no good solid evidence for either count, yet. The Diagonal would be better supported by a three-wave Intermediate (3), and the impulse would be better supported by a five-wave Intermediate (3). In the overall impulse wave up, this minor A wave would be the minor 1 wave.
So far, the market has been slightly stronger on the upside than we might have expected, but this still can be the "no-pullback" quality of an A wave up. So, once again, we remain flexible and patient and will continue to follow all the rules, and as many of the guidelines as we can.
On a positive note, we were correctly critical of those calling for "top tick" in an effort to sell their newsletters, and/or promote their services, and we hope that helped your perspective to some degree.
Cheers, and have a great holiday!