Saturday, November 26, 2016

A Few Charts

Although not publishing it regularly, I've have been rigorously tracking bullish sentiment as the market has risen. Here is a current update.



Weekly Combined Bullish Sentiment

You can see combined bullishness is at a new recent high at 58.6% bullish, compared to the February low of 37.1%. This is quite a swing and compares to previous market peaks in the 63 - 66% level. In fact, professionals and newsletter writers are 63% bullish, and individuals have recently swung from 23.6% as a low to a recent level of 49.9%. We are not claiming this level of sentiment necessarily represents an ultimate top. But things are definitely heating up.

One might also want to note that even as the DOW and S&P500 have powered to new all time highs, the $VIX is currently diverging and has not yet made a new all time low.

$VIX is Diverging Currently

The all time low in the $VIX is in the 9 - 10 range, and, even though the 11 level was reached in August, even that level has not been breached in November.

It is also worth noting that the Dow Jones Transportation Index may soon run into the resistance of a parallel trend channel line, as in the chart, below.

DJ Transportation Index - Possible Trend Channel Resistance Soon

A further look considers the S&P500 Index versus both it's current volume and it's On-Balance Volume which has not by any means broken out to new all time highs as price has.

SP500 Compared to Volume and On-Balance Volume

Finally, there is this comparison to the current NYSE Advance-Decline line, as below. Even though the SP500 and DOW are at new all-time highs. The advance-decline line is not currently.

NYAD Currently Diverges from Price

So, one has to ask to question if these are actually the first real chinks in the bull market - or whether they will correct themselves on short order. If these conditions do not right themselves, then it is possible the diagonal is actually forming. If they do get corrected relatively quickly, then it might suggest that Primary V will be the impulse count and not the diagonal count.

Cheers!

2 comments:

  1. Awesome post, Joe! Thanks again and I hope you had a great Thanksgiving!

    ReplyDelete
  2. hi joe

    Look at this site.
    http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/tenpp/8

    The monthly chart of the sp 500
    We will climb up to before the big fall after you ??

    Thank you in advance joe

    ReplyDelete