Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Prior Fourth Wave

Below is an SP500 30-minute chart based on the five-minute count we developed turn-by-turn in the real time chat room today. The count starts at the (e) wave of the triangle we counted out on the 4-hr chart in previous posts. As we noted yesterday, we counted a clean five-waves down in a channel, to minute wave i, below, and today we said we expected minute wave ii, up, and that appears to be what occurred.


SP500 30-Minute Count

Today's up wave was counted as a double-zigzag wave upward, and the wave stopped short of the fourth wave of one prior degree (.iv). Stopping at this level (the 38% retrace) is a temporary sign of weakness. Next, you might be able to see that - if you drew a trend line up from the low of minute i, to the low of the bar just before the one labeled as minute ii, then that trend line has now been broken lower, as well. This is another sign of weakness.

Further, from the minute ii wave high, we were again able to count another internal five waves down to the afternoon low. This is yet a further sign of weakness. In addition, the regular daily MACD's for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have also crossed lower today. Further weakness. And you can note the half-hour slow stochastic, above, has not moved to over-sold, yet, nor has it curled upward either. All of these indicators signal a move back down to at least test the prior low, but, most probably much lower (as in 1.62 x i, subtracted from ii).

That's what we see at the present. Caution, flexibility, and patience are still foremost in mind.

7 comments:

  1. Thanks again, Joe!

    It's nice to compare your blog posts to all my notes I took when I was on your site. I sure learned a lot from you. Much appreciated!

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    1. Glad to hear it, Mark, and most importantly keep at it!

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  2. A big flat wave 2 finished today closing the huge gap? And extendend 3 for tomorrow? Whats your opinion ?

    Thanks !

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    1. Today's wave up looks like a triple zig-zag. Do you agree ? Not a impulse signature in ewo and channels very well. It seems to me to be corrective.

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    2. Will address it in today's post.

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  3. certain popular sites giving targets between 2100 to 2116. then blast up... is it possible we actually completed wave b and wave c started from 2194 which was the entire prediction for first 6 months of this year

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    1. So, I looked at the futures to see if I could realistically count it that way, but the down move out of the triangle is too short. Possible, but not likely.

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